Nigeria remains a mono-cultural economy, 90 per cent dependent on oil money, despite all the talks over five decades to broaden the economic base by way of diversification.
There are signs that this model of national survival are bound to bring ruins to the country. What for instance is clear is that the USA that used to buy 800,000 barrels of Nigeria’s daily 2million plus barrels a day accounts for about 300,000 barrels as the USA explores oil internally and on its waters. Besides, there are mushrooming, competing crude oil producers that will either shrink Nigeria’s market or collapse the price of oil globally, two eventualities that will create a big economic crisis for a nation that touts itself Africa’s giant.
Jim Sanders, a West African watcher, reflects on the future of Nigeria, in an age of decreasing globalisation, when nations are looking more and more inwards to grow their economies. We bring you this short, surprisingly succinct perspective, courtesy of http://blogs.cfr.org/campbell/2012/12/28/nigeria-what-if-globalization-reverses/the blog of John Campbell, a former American envoy that Nigeria’s policy hawks love to hate:
“According to Fortune Magazine, investments in foreign held assets are decreasing. Joshua Cooper Ramo points out that, “figures on investment in assets held overseas, probably the best indicator of enthusiasm for globalism, are drifting down toward 40 percent from more than 50 percent in 2008.”
Ramo further notes that during “most of the past twenty years trade has raced ahead of global economic growth,” but in the last twenty-four months, it has slowed and, “this year, globally we’ll be below the twenty year average rate of trade growth yet again.”
According to Ramo, “We find everywhere signs of a world turning inward and of an era when the inside will define success and deliver growth—for companies, for nations, even for your career—in the way the outside once did.”
If true, and if sustained, where would such a trend toward an “inside world” leave Nigeria?
The country has, and does, depend heavily on export markets and foreign investment to maintain its oil industry, which provides 95 percent of the country’s foreign exchange earnings and 80 percent of its budgetary revenue.
Moreover, trade integration is believed to contribute to economic performance. Nigerian officials have considered “deeper trade integration as a means to foster economic growth and alleviate poverty,” according to some researchers. Yet the country’s National Bureau of Statistics reports unemployment at 21 percent, implying, says the Leadership newspaper, “policy failure.”
Economic shortcomings are paralleled by stalling anti-corruption efforts. Transparency International ranked Nigeria 139 out of 179 countries surveyed, making it, the second most corrupt country in West Africa. Security continues to deteriorate. Nigeria is now the seventh-most terrorized country in the world, according to the Global Terrorism Index.
Ramo argues that when globalizing eras end, they “generally take nations that don’t adapt for a very unpleasant ride.” Operating on old ideas, their leaders typically fail to grasp dynamics of the new age. This is what revolutions are made of, he suggests. If so, Nigeria may be closer to the brink than previously thought.”
. Do you agree with this view? Let’s share your thoughts.