11th April, 2011
Northern voters may already have unsettled the presidential ambition of General Muhammadu Buhari , the candidate of the Congress for Progressive Change, CPC, going by the substantial returns in last weekend’s parliamentary election.
Pre-election predictions had given Buhari a swathe of territory in the Northern parts of the country, with pundits giving his main rival, President Goodluck Jonathan, a solid support base in the South east, South South and North central zones of the country.
But voting trends only confirmed Jonathan’s strength, but they shattered bookmakers’ predictions for General Buhari.
According to the results of the elections, Buhari’s CPC, performed woefully in some parts of the North West hitherto considered its stronghold, with the PDP trouncing his party in those areas.Where the PDP did not hold sway, the ANPP filled the vacuum. In Sokoto State, the spiritual headquarters of Northern Nigeria, the PDP swept the eight assembly seats declared so far.
For instance, in Adamawa State where Buhari’s CPC was expected to give PDP a tough fight in the Senatorial election, it lost all the three seats to PDP, with the Action Congress of Nigeria, coming second in one of the senatorial districts.
The CPC also performed poorly in Bauchi State, winning just three out of the 10 Federal House of Representatives seats. The PDP went away with seven of the seats. The PDP also won the two senatorial seats declared in the state.
CPC did not also fare better in Kano State where PDP won two of the three Senatorial seats and ANPP clinched the remaining one. CPC only got two House of Representatives seats in Kano while ANPP got eight and PDP got 11.
In the nearby Jigawa state, the CPC and the Action Congress were routed by the PDP. The party conceded none of the three senatorial seats. In Zamfara state, the CPC also lost ground to the ANPP and the PDP. The ANPP won one of the senatorial seats, while the PDP won the remaining two. ANPP also ran away with five of the representatives seats declared.
In Yobe in the North west, Buhari’s CPC was also vanquished. The ANPP won all the senatorial seats and five of the house of representatives. The PDP made a lame showuing, winning one of the rep seats. In Taraba, two of the senatorial seats declared were also won by the PDP. In Nasarawa State, both the CPC and the PDP were evenly matched, sharing the two senate seats declared, one a piece.
Buhari’s party only posted a spectacular performance in his home state, Katsina where it clinched all the three Senatorial seats and 12 House of Representatives, leaving PDP with only two. But that is where the story ends, because CPC also had a dismal outing in other parts of the north, southeast, south-south and even southwest where the party’s vice presidential candidate, Tunde Bakare hails from.
The overall result shows that CPC was roundly beaten by PDP in all the six geopolitical zones. While PDP clinched a total of 52 senatorial seats and 82 House of Representatives seats from result so far declared, CPC has six Senatorial seats and 30 House of Representatives seats across the country.
The Action Congress of Nigeria, which was in an alliance talks with the CPC before the polls, clearly outperformed the CPC in the elections, winning 13 senate seats and 32 reps seats.
Pundits had expected Buhari’s party to have done better than the result it posted in the parliamentary election.
With the voting trends, pundits are suspecting that Jonathan may coast home to a clear victory rather than go through the rigours of a rerun election by the time the presidential election result is declared next weekend.
The Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, had said it had prepared for a rerun in case there was a tie between the presidential candidates of the PDP and CPC. But that may not be necessary if the trend witnessed in last Saturday’s poll is replicated in the presidential election.
General Buhari had run for the presidency in 2003 and 2007.
