How The Zones Will Vote

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South-West: Candidate Buhari has no chance here at all. Ribadu’s biggest support base lies in this region and is most likely to win it. But candidate Jonathan will also get substantial votes here, with support from the Ondo State entrenched Labour Party, Accord, PDP party in Oyo, PPN – PDP in Ogun State.

In Lagos State, Jonathan is also projected to score no less than 25 per cent of the votes. Ekiti State voters are also projected to give Jonathan at least 40 per cent of the votes.

South East: Absolutely Jonathan. Other candidates only exist on paper.

South-South: Absolutely Jonathan.

North Central: This is largely a safe zone for Jonathan, but he is set to face stiff challenge from candidate Buhari in states such as Nasarawa, Niger and Gombe. Kwara State will go to Jonathan. And so will be Benue and Plateau states.

North East Zone: Although candidate Ribadu is from Adamawa, one of the states in this zone, it will be a sheer miracle and a herculean task for him to win the state. The PDP remains strong here, judging by the last parliamentary election. And it is expected that its adherents will deliver the state to Jonathan, not minding that Ribadu is a son-of-the-soil. The CPC candidate, Buhari, is expected to put up a fight here, but no surprises are expected.

The ANPP candidate, Shekarau, may take Yobe, but Borno State will be shared among PDP, ANPP and CPC.

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Taraba State, one of the states here will, according to all indications, go to Jonathan.

North West: Voters in Kaduna, Katsina are likely to re-enact their preferences as demonstrated last week. So, the two states are safe bets for the CPC candidate. But Kano may prove a defferent kettle of fish as the ANPP candidate and incumbent governor Shekarau holds sway. There are speculations that voters may revolt and vote for CPC, instead of PDP, which won handsomely the last time.

But Shekarau’s running introduces a twist into the matter. He is likely to attract a lot of the votes in this state second to Lagos, with the highest number of registered voters. Our forecast is the votes will be split, with CPC and PDP and ANPP in serious contention.

The ANPP candidate seems also to have an edge in Zamfara and Kebbi. But Sokoto may just go to Jonathan because the Sultan and leading figures in the state have claimed Jonathan as “their son.”

Jigawa, with Sule Lamido at the helm, will also most likely vote the PDP candidate.

Our Overall Forecast: Jonathan will win at the first ballot, with a considerable plural majority.

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