Lessons Of The 2011 General Elections

At last, the 2011 general elections have come and gone and, doubtless, not a few Nigerians will heave a sigh of relief. The relief, I can assure you, is not as if the elections were the best or the worst that has ever been held in Nigeria. Rather, it is because of the anxiety it created in all of our minds months before the elections. The issues and controversies that had to be contended with were as many as they were diverse and each of them was capable of blowing up a conflagration in the country.

First was the controversial zoning issue brought into the front burner of the nation’s polity by the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The contention was whether or not the incumbent President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan was qualified to vie for another term as President going by PDP’s zoning arrangement which “zoned” the Presidency to the North. The Northern Political Leaders’ Forum (NPLF), led by a former Finance Minister, Mallam Adamu Ciroma, took up the gauntlet to fight on the side of the North vowing that the zoning formula must be maintained and President Jonathan must not feature in the primaries of the party.

Lined up behind him were former Vice-President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, former military president, General Ibrahim Babangida, former Chief Security Adviser to the President, Ibrahim Gusau, among other heavyweights from that region. On the side of the President, notable leaders of the party lined up and insisted that the zoning formula did not affect the President. The battle line was drawn. Brickbats were thrown across the divide and threats were made, some bordering on treason. Then the matter went to court and the court ruled finally that the President was qualified to participate in the primaries.

The issue then collapsed into a search for the most credible and politically relevant Northerner who would challenge President Jonathan at the primaries of the PDP. Again, the NPLF took it as its primary, in fact, sole responsibility to produce this personality. The search was narrowed down to four people: General Ibrahim Babangida, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, Governor Bukola Saraki of Kwara State and Ibrahim Gusau. But at the prompting of the NPLF, they all agreed to a consensus candidate which emerged in the person of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar after series of meetings of “the wise men”.

Even before the primaries proper, indications were rife that the political equation was fast being redrawn as notable personalities and politicians from the North began to make favourable statements towards the Jonathan Presidency bid. Then came the primaries and President Jonathan won to become PDP’s candidate for the 2011 presidential election. As soon as the victory was announced, some of the principal leaders of the move against the President’s bid, made a U-turn to pledge their support for him.

Then the campaigns began at both the Federal and state levels. The most significant issue that arose from this was the hostile attitudes of some state governors towards candidates of other parties. Most of the state governors made deliberate and desperate efforts to prevent their rivals from campaigning in their states. The media was soon awash with reports of some state governments making it almost or totally impossible for parties other than their own to hold campaign rallies in their domains and denying them the use of public facilities such as radio, stadia and even streets. Just a week into the governorship campaigns, the Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN, was denied access to hold its presidential campaign rally initially planned for the IBB Public Square in Makurdi, the Benue State capital, forcing the party to shift the venue to Gboko. The party had earlier alleged that it was denied holding its presidential rally in Jigawa on February 21 on the excuse that the state Governor, Sule Lamido was also billed to host his rally on the same date.

Also in Abakaliki, the Ebonyi State capital, Governor Martin Elechi equally placed hurdles on the path of the major rival party, the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), banning it from starting its national campaign in the state. Dr Ogbonnaya Onu, the ANPP National Chairman and “a son of the soil”, had earlier announced that the kickoff of the party’s presidential campaign would be in Abakaliki, the state capital. But Elechi alleged that the plan of the party was to destabilise the state. And in Niger State, the state police Command refused to allow the North Central zonal rally of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) to hold in the state on March 3, 2011.

The trend later developed into open confrontations and bloodletting as the dramatis personae become more vicious. A case in point was that of Akwa Ibom State where the Governorship candidate of the Action Congress of Nigeria, Senator James Akpan Udoedehe was arrested by the police and later charged “for treason”. It was fallout of the reaction of ACN supporters to an attempt to prevent the party’s gubernatorial candidate from campaigning in Ikot Ekpene, the home town of the State Governor. Senator Udoedehe was released on bail after days of incarceration but was again rearrested by the police. As at Saturday, April 2, 2011, when polling was expected to start, he and majority of ACN leaders in the state were still behind bars.

The case of Imo State was no better as the All Progressive Grand Alliance gubernatorial candidate, Rochas Okorocha, and his followers were hounded and harassed consistently by the police in the State who prevented them from using any government facility or space to conduct rallies. Okorocha and his deputy were forced into temporary hiding as the elections approached. In Bayelsa State, the Deputy Governor, Mr. Peremobowei Ebebi, who was seeking a senatorial seat, also faced harassment as the police tried to arrest him for an alleged offence committed in 2009. The Deputy Governor had to pull some strings in Abuja to frustrate that attempt.

Perhaps most dramatic were the reasons advanced by the affected governors and the police commissioners of the concerned states for their action. Take Ebonyi State for example. Ageing Martin Elechi accused the ANPP, led by a “son of the soil”, Dr. Ogbonnaya Onu, of attempting to pull down his government. According to this Governor, who is constitutionally the Chief Security Officer of Ebonyi State, “ANPP has mapped out various strategies to accomplish its evil agenda, which include waging a vicious propaganda against me. Others include massive arrests of key supporters of my government and sending them to police zone 6, Calabar, for interrogation, detention and possible imprisonment, burning of PDP party structures in rural areas as well as brutal attack on its adherents, tearing and or burning of governor’s posters and billboards”. Considering the fact that Dr. Onu is just a national chairman of a political party (which is not even the ruling party), it was a wonder where he would get all the powers to carry out all the activities ascribed to him. But that is not all. Elechi also said he could not allow the ANPP to hold its political rally in Abakaliki, “because Abakaliki is a small provincial capital struggling to measure up to the status of a capital and inadequate for state function’’.

It is from these two outstanding issues that the lessons of the 2011 General Elections can be drawn. First is the role integrity and performance could play in making electoral choices. Although the elections were not totally devoid of irregularities and malpractices, it was adjudged, by both Nigerians and the international observers, to be comparatively free and fair. Perhaps for the second time in the electioneering history of this county, Nigerians voted with their conscience. The pattern of voting from the National Assembly, through the Presidential, to the Governorship elections clearly showed that the electorates had preferences based on their individual assessments.

Take the National Assembly elections for example. From the pattern of voting, it was largely obvious that the electorates were convinced about the ability of their choices to deliver on their electoral promises. That could be seen from the instant jubilations that erupted at polling booths after the counting of votes. The ruling Peoples Democratic Party, for example, lost quite a number of its heavy weights in that election. But when it came to the Presidential election, it was quite a different ball game as the PDP swept the polls even in the domains of its traditional opponents. Voters were unanimous and resolute in their choice of Goodluck Jonathan as their next President. Except for some misguided elements in parts of the country, the Presidential election was reminiscent of the nullified 1993 Presidential election. It was obvious that Nigerians see in the President a man of character and integrity; a levelheaded and unassuming man who believes in Nigeria and who could be trusted to deliver on whatever promises he makes to them. It was clear that the voting pattern had nothing to do with the party he belongs.

So, what happened on April 16, 2011 was clearly for Goodluck Jonathan. Of course, it would have been foolhardiness for anyone, least of all the PDP, to have assumed that the pattern of the Presidential election would subsist in subsequent ones. On Tuesday, April 26, the electorates again went out to vote in their governors and members of the House of Assembly. At the end of the exercise, the ruling party lost five states to the opposition. Ogun and Oyo, the remaining two of the five Southwest states which were lost to the PDP in 2003, were reclaimed by the Action Congress of Nigeria. Ekiti and Osun states had earlier been reclaimed by the party through court processes in 2010.

Again, that election brought to the fore the role of performance in the choice making process. In Lagos, for example, the electorates were clearly decided on whom to vote for long before the Election Day. From the sample of opinions that emerged, it was clear that Tuesday, April 26, 2011 was Governor Fashola’s Day. In fact, throughout the campaigns, he was clearly a selling point for the Action Congress of Nigeria based purely on his performance in the last four years. In most other states of the Federation, the pattern of voting also showed that the electorates wanted a change. This was particularly obvious in some of the states controlled by the ruling party where results declared after voting saw the opposition clearly defeating the incumbents or running neck to neck. It was a clear departure from the experiences of 2003 and 2007.

The first lesson of the 2011 General Elections, therefore, is that given a level playing field in a free and fair election, Nigerians will elect credible and performing leaders. Secondly, having had a taste of performance and good governance, as demonstrated in Lagos and some other states of the Federation, Nigerians are no longer ready to be deceived by career politicians. Thirdly, the days when politics is left in the hands of the uninformed and uneducated are over. And, perhaps finally, all true Nigerians are today ready to take the nation’s destiny in their hands.

LAST LINE

Perhaps, what happened in the last general elections should be read as a note of warning that in 2015, any person stepping out to offer his or her services to Nigerians must be ready to face a well informed audience; because, I foresee a situation where, instead of carrying banners and organising rallies and street shows, more of the campaigns would be collapsed into live televised debates and symposia where stakeholders take on their prospective leaders to drill them on aspects of governance they intend to offer. It will no longer be time for political grandstanding where politicians make “promises” which they do not intend to keep. I know this because, some of the leaders in 2011 will go out of their ways to perform so creditably in governance that at the end of their term, the opposition would have little to campaign for. It has happened in Lagos in 2011. Other leaders at all levels will certainly borrow a leaf.

Congratulations Nigerians!

•Mac Durugbo is the Personal Assistant (Print Media) to the Governor of Lagos State