Meteorologist Faults Weather Forecast

A meteorologist, Prof. Temi Ologunorisa on Wednesday said the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)’s inaccurate forecast and predictions was due to its data deficiency in climatic variables.

Ologunorisa told the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) in Lagos that the agency’s lack of accurate climatic information had often resulted in misleading weather forecast and rainfall predictions.

“Today, there are real problems in the nation’s weather forecast and rainfall predictions; we presently have fewer upper air observations in Nigeria.

“Most of the present predictions and forecasting models are mere empirical statistical extrapolations,” he said.

The meteorologist said that the agency had no sufficient data capturing equipment needed for observation of the initial state of the atmosphere before releasing forecast and predictions. He said individuals, farmers and other organizations were finding it difficult to rely on the agency’s forecast and predictions, describing the situation as “unhealthy.”

Ologunorisa also noted that the laws governing the complex interaction of factors controlling the weather condition were not complete.

The meteorologist urged the agency to urgently redirect energy toward coming up with accurate and dependable predictions, like other meteorological agencies around the world.

“The agency ought to know that weather forecasting is a complex process which requires a good understanding of the initial state of the atmosphere,” he said. The meteorologist urged the agency to improve on the spatial coverage of upper air observation, to be able to come up with accurate climatic and weather data.

He said inaccurate weather forecast and rainfall predictions would affect operations of people and organizations relying on such information.

“Especially now that we are experiencing climatic changes, NIMET should be able to come up with accurate or near-accurate weather and climatic information,” Ologunorisa said.