News Analysis: Nigeria’s President Jonathan rides on Tiger’s tail

Bayo Onanuga

President Jonathan of Nigeria must have made his portraiture go back to the canvas. Portrayed often as a meek and weak leader, a wimp incapable of taking macho decisions, Jonathan surprised his compatriots on New Year’s Day by removing the alleged subsidy on petrol prices in Nigeria. He did not announce the removal himself but saddled an agency to do so.

The biggest surprise was however the timing; as government claimed it was still engaged in consultations with a motley of Nigerian groups and that it had set an April 2012 deadline for the policy. But as it turned out, the consultations were actually mere briefings about a very unpopular policy that the Jonathan government had concluded it was going to implement, no matter the outcry and disavowal by the Nigerian people.

To be sure, the policy was not the exclusive copyright of the less than eight- month old government. It was dictated by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund as a way of curbing ‘waste’ in the neo-colonial governments in West Africa, based on the assumption that the beneficiaries of the so-called subsidy were not the ordinary poor people, the masses, but the rich. Ghana announced a version of the policy that jacked up petrol and diesel prices by almost 30 per cent two days to the end of 2011. Nigeria followed suit two days after, ignoring the groundswell of opinion against it.

Jonathan really must have a heart molten in iron. No longer can he be classified as a weakling, but a lion-heart. But I dare say, a lion-heart for the most wrong-headed policy ever made in our country, a policy lacking in empathy for the people, ill thought, ill timed, and meant to emasculate the poor people of Nigeria further.

Lest we lose track of the basis for the government’s action, we need to restate the argument for and against the annulment of the subsidy. First, that the subsidy was gobbling $10 billion dollars of the country’s forex reserve. The antagonists of the oil subsidy removal believe that this forex attrition will go on nevertheless as the country, a major crude oil producer, lacks the internal refining capacity for its own fuel. Second, that the subsidy was gobbling N1.3 trillion of Nigeria’s internal revenue and reducing government’s capacity to carry out capital projects. Again, this argument is countered by sobering statistics supplied by the antagonists: government’s expenses on its personnel and other perks gobble over 70 per cent of Nigeria’s income, leaving less than 25 per cent for capital expenditure. Antagonists go further to state that all the people that consume over 70 per cent of the national income are not up to one million. That it is most sensible for government to first curb its own ravenous appetite in devouring Nigeria’s income before wiping away the only benefit the Nigerian people, 159 million of them, derive from the nation; a simple case of leading by example. Besides, Nigerians suspect that the bill of N1.3 trillion, showcased for subsidy was bloated and fraudulent and that the bulk of the money had gone to finance Jonathan’s election in 2011 and also that some of it had been stolen by the untouchables, otherwise known as the “oil cabal”.

As expected, the policy, which has seen petrol prices more than doubling from N65 to N141, and in some cities tripling to N175-N200, has provoked a harmattan of discontent in Africa’s most populous country, with protesters taking over the streets in Lagos, Abuja, Abeokuta and several other towns. On Facebook, in online newspaper feedbacks, Nigerians are mobilizing themselves to stage their version of “Arab Spring”, the revolt in Tunisia that created a domino effect in the Arab world, toppling the leadership not just in Tunisia, but also in Egypt, Libya and Yemen. The protests, so far, are spontaneous reactions to the policy. The mother of all reactions is expected to be staged by the labour unions, after their meetings later in the week.

President Jonathan appears fully ready for the repercussions of his policy, as he works from a script authored by his advisers. In response to the outcries by Labour and the human rights groups, Jonathan has asked a panel headed by the retired chief justice, Alfa Belgore to negotiate on his government’s behalf. It’s a panel I expect Labour to shun, because government has really not demonstrated good faith on this issue so far, going ahead to implement a policy that labour stoutly opposed.

To the Nigerians bemoaning rising costs, Jonathan has ready-made another panel, headed by a respected Nigerian and former ambassador, Christopher Kolade. Government said the Kolade panel would be saddled with the implementation of the projects to be funded from the savings arising from the removal of oil subsidy. The two panels are clearly contradictory. Jonathan cannot sincerely want to negotiate with Labour, when it is already making plans to spend the accruals from the removal of the fuel subsidy.

During some of his briefings, wrongly called consultations, President Jonathan had said he was prepared to suffer a loss of popularity over the removal of the subsidy. At the same time, he expressed optimism that his popularity would rebound when Nigerians realize that the policy was in their best interest.

Whether the scenario will be like he envisaged is not clear for now. But what is so resoundingly clear, with Nigerians’ resounding rejection of the subsidy removal, is that Goodluck Jonathan is perched on a tiger’s tail for a ride. Like anyone who rides on tiger’s tail, he may be seriously hurt, or totally consumed.
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