2015: Will Jonathan Honour His Word?

President Goodluck Jonathan.

President Goodluck Jonathan: sets up panel for national dialogue

Since the days of General Ibrahim Badamosi Babangida, IBB’s eight years rule, Nigerians seldomly believe their leaders especially when they make political statements, electioneering campaign or electoral promises. At best, majority of Nigerians are of the consensus that when their leaders say yes, what their hearts is no.

Towards the end of his military dictatorship, IBB was fond of saying, “I (or we) shall handover Insha Allah”, so often that some Nigerians changed the statement to “Each time I We” Events later proved the people right. By August 1993, it became crystals clear to Nigerians that IBB never planned to handover power to anyone despite his promises and billions of naira sank into his transition (without and end) programme.

Nigerians disenchantment of IBB’s transition deceit was so obvious that Head of the Interim National Government, Chief Ernest Shonekan during a television broadcast asked, “when General Babangida said he would quid power on 26

August, 1993, did you believe him?”

Then after 82 days in the government (not I power), Abacha shoved aside Shonekan. He started his own transition agenda. In fairness to him, the infantry general never for one day publicly announced his intention that he want to transform to a civilian leader.

However, the signs were too obvious for a blind man to see and the deaf to hear. The five political parties registered by Abacha adopted him as their only presidential candidate. What manner of democracy! The umpire in a game assuming the role of a contestant and winner even before kick off.

Leaders of the five political parties were wise enough to keep their heads. Many opponents of Abacha’s regime and his transition were killed. Some were driven into exile. A few were lucky to miss his killer squad’s target. While several anti Abacha activists were clamped into detention.

Thanks to divine intervention that halted Abacha’s transition on 8 June, 1998. With his death, Nigeria and Nigerians could move forward politically.

And so Chief Olusegun Obasanjo began his first four-year term in 29 May, 1999. From the onset, political pundits expected him to seek second term in office in 2003. But towards the tail end of his second term, the signs were clear that the Owu-Abeokuta born General turned politician was not in a hurry to depart the Aso Rock Villa, the seat of power.

Like the two generals before him (IBB and Abacha), Obasanjo never announced his third term agenda publicly. But his field soldiers were working round the clock. Antagonists of the third term agenda were victimized, disgraced and humiliated. It was widely speculated lots of Ghana-must-go bags exchanged hands.

The then Senate President, Chief Ken Nnamani recently made a public statement to lend credence to the fact that Obasanjo actually nursed a third term agenda. Thank God, the dream failed. Perhaps he would have sought fourth term or life presidency because he would have completed the third term on May 28, 2011.

Meanwhile, man-of-the-moment, President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan GEJ assumed power on 6 May, 2010 after the demise of his former boss, the late Alhaji Umaru Musa Yar’Adua. As provided in the 1999 constitution of Nigeria. GEJ completed the term of the former president on 28 May, 2011.

There was a heated debate on whether or not GEJ should continue in office before and after the death of former President Yar’Adua. Certain Nigerians, mostly Northern element were of the strong view that GEJ must swim or drown with his former principal.

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In the midst of the argument and during the 2011 electioneering campaign, GEJ assured his detractors, especially the Northerners that he would spend only one term in office, if elected. The Arewa Consultative Forum ACF, and other pro-North political activists were groaning that the North should continue the Yar’Adua presidency in 2011. But as the anti-GEJ Northerners were busy on how to return their man to Aso Rock in 2015, some pro-GEJ have started to fly a kite, that their man is constitutionally entitled to another four-year term in office.

Reacting to a suit by a PDP member who wanted the court to stop GEJ from contesting in 2015, the president’s spokesman, Dr. Reuben Abati (obviously speaking the mind of his boss) said it is too early to debate 2015 presidency.

He added that GEJ is yet to decide if he would run in 2015. Could one ever from this declaration that GEJ might decide later to contest.

Having seen the handwriting on the wall, prominent Nigerians have been calling on GEJ not to contest in 2015. One of them, legal icon and founder Afe Babalola University, Ado-Ekiti, Chief Afe Babalola said there is nothing in the provision of the 1999 constitution that could stop GEJ from contesting for a second term in office.

However, the legal luminary argued that the president word should continue to be his bond. Since he actually promised Nigerians during his electioneering campaigns that he would not contest for a second term in office, he should honour his world.

Similarly, prominent and outspoken lawyer, Professor Itse Sagay expressed the opinion that even though there is no law that can stop GEJ from running in 2015, he should honour his word.

But the question is, will the President honour his word? What if he decided to exercise his constitutional right to two terms of four years each? What are the political implications of such decision on the polity?

Many curious political observers of the PDP’s recent national convention and the emergence of Alhaji Bamanga Tukur as PDP National Chairman, were of the view that race towards 2015 Presidential election has kicked off in earnest.

First, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s hopes of contesting had been sealed with the election of his kinsman from his Adamawa State based and the same Northern geo-political zone.

Second, he was believed to be the president’s candidate. More importantly, the PDP will unlikely pick its national chairman and presidential candidate from the North.

For these reasons, many political pundits have argued that GEJ has announced to interested parties that there is no vacancy in Aso Rock in 2015.

But 2015 is still far away. Therefore let’s keep our ringers crossed while we continue to ponder the multi-million naira question, will Jonathan honour his word?

—Moyo Fabiyi

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