5th November, 2012
By Ben Nanaghan
Americans will troop to the polls to choose their President on November 6, 2012. Since the USRR crumbled in 1990, America has aptly played the role of a global policeman.
This hegemonic role has never been challenged either by Russia which emerged the most powerful nation from the Soviet rubble or from China which is only taking its first steps as a global superpower. For now the world is seemingly at peace. Gone are the times when the John Kennedy/Nikita Khrushchev’s imbroglio of October 22, 1962 made nuclear war imminent while the whole world held its breath.
But America is not just a unipolar power for its military and economic strengths alone, America’s unipolar status was not manipulated by figures or mysticism. America’s unipolar position is real.
This piece is about the American Presidential election slated for 6 November, 2012. It is about the best and greatest democracy in the world. It is about the beauty of democracy- American Democracy.
The recent Russian election was a stage-managed sham for Vladimir Putin to return to power after briefly stepping aside for Medvedev. All those who criticized the elections were clamped into jail including members of the Pussy Riot band.
But one of the factors that make America a unipolar power is its democratic beauty. It was this democratic excellence that made Barack Obama President in 2008. Where else in the world outside Africa can a black President emerge apart from America? The beauty and excellence of American democracy is worth savouring.
President Obama has proved that his victory in 2008 was not a fluke. In their 1st Presidential debate on 3 October, 2012, President Obama found his match in Mitt Romney who clinched the debate with a last gasp round-up. While Obama tried to play the gentle President, Governor Mitt Romney fired on all cylinders and surprised even himself knowing that President Obama is one of the world’s greatest orators in the mould of the late President John Fitzgerald Kennedy, Rev. Martin Luther King and President Bill Clinton. Obama was only a victim of his executive office which expects the American President to maintain an equanimous dignity even in the face of the most provocative affront. He was also unlucky to be asked by Bob Schieffer, the moderator to round off first. And he did so like a gentle American President with his now well known professorial didacticism. President Obama disappointed most of his die-hard fans who thought he would hit Gov. Romney, hard on his secret comments about America’s lazy 47% population who depend mainly on government largesse and handouts. President Obama also failed to take advantage of Governor Romney’s flip-flops, Romney’s reluctance to exhibit transparency regarding his tax details and his lack of a detailed plan of action in the oval office if he wins.
Obama’s below par performance could also be traced to his debate rustiness, as that would, be his 1st debate after 4 years Analysts also blame the choice of former presidential candidate John Kerry as his debate sparring partner.
But the effect of the 1st Presidential debate was highly devastating in all its ramifications even though the poll result was a narrow 48% for Obama and 49% for Romney, it had destroyed the fantastic image he had built over these 6 years that he appeared on the American scene. However, the Rasmussen poll out the 1st debate at 50/46 in Gov. Mitt Romney’s favour. For instance before this 1st debate all the 8 polls in the state of Ohio were in Obama’s favour. But immediately after the debate 6 out of the 8 polls went Governor Romney’s way.
The only Vice Presidential debate was a great face-saver for the Democratic Party as Vice President Joe Biden creditably acquitted himself against the GOP Vice Presidential candidate Paul Ryan even though the pollsters adjudged it a draw. In the 2nd presidential debate of Tuesday October 16, 2012 moderated by Candy Crowley, President Barack Obama expectedly came out smoking. And the result was a thorough thrashing of the GOP candidate. The Gallup polls came out with varying figures of 53/39 53/43, all in Obama’s favour.
The 3rd Presidential debate which was held on Friday 26 October, 2012 was originally meant for foreign policy alone but went beyond its scope as Romney who was not very comfortable with foreign policy dragged the debate “all over the map” to cover the economy, job creation etc.
President Barack Obama was at his best element at this 3rd debate as he pointedly told Mitt Romney that he Romney has never been in charge of foreign policy and all his (Romney’s) opinions and articulations on foreign policy have been wrong. This condescending statement from the President weakened Gov. Romney to the marrow as the psychological hammer physically affected the contending GOP candidate. In his professorial and didactic style President Obama took Mitt Romney through the basics of foreign policy. Gov. Mitt Romney had very little ideas of his own as he agreed with President Barack Obama in virtually all areas of dispute.
In Syria Gov. Romney agreed with Obama but he veered slightly by saying he will give friendly rebels heavy weaponry as against Obama’s light weaponry. But Romney did not consider the implications of these heavy weapons falling into wrong hands. On Iran, Romney also agreed completely with Obama but that he would put “tougher sanctions” in place. However, political observers know that “tougher sanctions” is a relative political phraseology.
On Israel both candidates agreed that Israel was their greatest ally in the middle east.
The Septembers 11, 2012 Benghazi Massacre of Christopher Steven, the American Ambassador to Libya and 3 other Americans was one point of heated disagreement between the two candidates. While President Obama finally agreed that it was a terrorist act, Romney blamed Obama for system failure as a result of an overlooked private SOS message from the American Embassy in Benghazi. President Barack Obama did a lot of damage control during the 2nd and 3rd debates but if he had won the first debate he would have remained the clear choice ab-initio.
However, I have good reasons to believe that God is on Obama’s side. How come that after a terrible run of unemployment figures the first unemployment figures released on October 5, 2012 immediately after the 1st debate on October 3, 2012 had an improved and positive record. This was a big boost for President Barack Obama. It showed that the American economy was showing signs of recovery as employment figures improved beyond Americans’ expectations.
Also the American 3rd quarter GDP figures released last week was another divinely fortuitous event that helped to boost the President’s chances of retaining the presidency. The GDP recorded a surprising 2% increase for the 3rd quarter of July-September 2012. This was another big boost for President Barack Obama’s chances as it was slightly higher than expected by Americans.
Another good fortune for President Obama was the gaffe by the GOP Senatorial Candidate for Virginia, Mr. Richard Mourdock who spoke on a TV show that pregnancy of rape victims was an act of God. This also robbed off negatively on Romney’s campaign as Mourdock had earlier been endorsed by Gov. Mitt Romney. Even with this gaffe Mitt Romney refused to distance himself from the flapping Mourdock.
Of course President Barack Obama cashed in on this to maintain his 54% to 43% lead from female voters. President Barack Obama is very popular with white female voters than white male voters who prefer Mitt Romney.
Both candidates have spent more than $300mn each and $350mn of this total fund have been spent within the swing states of Florida, Virginia and Ohio.
In Colorado another battleground state with 9 electoral college votes the race is a dead heat as both candidates have 48% apiece. In Wisconsin with 10 electoral votes Obama is leading 51/45. In Ohio with 18 electoral college votes the new polls gives it to Obama at, 50/46%. Ohio will always go Obama’s way because the auto industry is the mainstay of her economy and this they believe is as a result of Obama’s stimulus package. Michigan which is another Auto industry state may go Obama’s way too. Florida which is the childhood state of President Obama is voting Mitt Romney with its 29 electoral college votes.
The electoral collage voting system and the popular votes system work side by side in American Presidential elections.
There are a total of 538 electoral college votes in the USA distributed among all the 50 states with population and size as criterion. A presidential candidate needs to win 270 electoral votes to become president if he also has a majority of popular votes. In 2008 Barack Obama became President after securing 365 electoral votes and a majority of popular votes.
My special vote is for President Barack Obama but the Democrats must watch their back as the Republicans always come up with last minutes tricks. In 2004 George Walker Bush did it in Florida. In 2008, the Republican stealthily introduced the vote switching machine which but for early detection would have robbed Obama of the Presidency. And now authoritative sources confirm that all the 33 states under the control of the GOP have enacted new strong laws to ban early voting and to double check all voters’ identification and citizenship. The Democrats believe this new state law is to intimidate, frustrate and suppress Black, Latino and Hispanic voters from voting at the November 6, 2012 election. But the Republican Party insists that it is doing this to reduce voters’ fraud as displayed by “voters’ fraud is felony” banners in most voting centres in the GOP states.
Democrats have cried out loud against this voters suppression strategy which is a psychological war to reduce votes for the Democratic party.
But with the new surge of Latinos and Hispanics into America seeking for the American dream coupled with about 80% African Americans rooting for Obama’s victory, I am convinced that the scale will tilt in Obama’s favour.
•Nanaghan wrote from Lagos.