2nd May, 2013
Late last month, the Director General, Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency, NIHSA, John Shamonda, presented the 2013 Annual Flood Outlook, AFO, for Nigeria.
As contained in the report, many states (apart from Ekiti, Enugu, Katsina, Imo, Abia and Federal Capital Territory, FCT) will experience a devastating flood in 2013. They are: Zamfara, Yobe, Sokoto, Rivers, Taraba, Plateau, Oyo, Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Niger, Nasarawa, Lagos, Kwara, Kogi, Kebbi, Kano, Kaduna, Jigawa, Gombe, Edo, Ebonyi, Delta, Cross Rivers, Benue, Bayelsa, Bauchi, Anambra, Akwa Ibom, and Adamawa. He added that 156 Local Government Areas would be affected.
The peak floods at the confluence of Rivers Niger and Benue to the Niger Delta are also expected to be as high as the 2012 floods. He added that the worst scenario are expected in Kogi, Edo, Delta and Anambra States, the Coastal Delta States of Bayelsa, Rivers and Delta. Some states in the Southwest such as Ondo, Ogun, and Lagos are expected to have coastal flooding. In the forecast, flash floods are expected in major urban centres of Lagos, Port Harcourt, Kano, Yola, Onitsha, Oshogbo, Ibadan.
NIHSA took its cue from the one presented by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency, NIMET’s 2013 Seasonal Rainfall Prediction, SRP, which submitted the same fearful conclusion. In other words, NHSA set up a Technical Committee to assess the Flood Outlook for 2013 in Nigeria. Shamonda revealed that in the absence of a reliable model adapted for flood forecasting for the country, the committee adopted simple empirical techniques of relating flood factors in the 2012 data and using its own method to assess the flood outlook for 2013 based on NIMET’s 2013 SRP data.
According Shamonda, floods and associated hazards may be inevitable, but they can be minimised and turned into an opportunity to transform society into a higher level of sustainability. This requires pro-activeness and a change of paradigm from emergency management to flood risk management in order to avert a disaster.
This is the crux of the matter. We advise that the states mentioned should make proactive moves by putting in place necessary facilities that can reduce the effects of flood. If we go by what is contained in the report that the effects of flood will not be much “where urban drainage facilities may have been cleared of debris and waste dumps”, states that have not cleared their drains should do so.
All tiers of government (federal, states and local) must synergise on this matter since deluge does not respect boundaries! This also applies to contiguous states which should work together to tackle devastating run-offs.
Nigeria must also work with other neighbouring countries to find out ways to work together on this matter. This is because in 2012, the body of water which Cameroon released from its dam, caused devastation in many states in Nigeria.
However, citizens too have their own responsiblities. They should stop dumping refuse in drainage channels. They should heed the government warnings that those who live in flood prone areas must relocate. Also, governments at all levels must reappraise their apparatus for reacting to emergencies.