Mozambique: FRELIMO, RENAMO sign peace deal (Photos)

With a handshake and a hug, Mozambique’s leaders hoped on Tuesday to close the book on a decades-long conflict. But an election in October and new causes of violence mean lasting peace is far from assured.

After fighting on opposite sides of a civil war that erupted following independence from Portugal and killed more than one million people between 1977 and 1992, the ruling Frelimo party and former guerrilla movement Renamo signed a ceasefire that ended the worst of the bloodshed.

However, violence has flared periodically in the years since, especially around elections.

President Filipe Nyusi and Renamo leader Ossufo Momade smiled broadly and embraced after signing the deal, which encompasses a permanent end to hostilities and constitutional changes, as well as the disarming and reintegration of Renamo fighters into the security forces or civilian life.

“With this agreement we are saying that we may disagree, but we always use dialogue to settle our differences,” Nyusi said at an event in Maputo’s Praça da Paz (Peace Square), in front of dignitaries including South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa and presidents of other neighbouring states.

“Never again should election results dictate the state of peace in Mozambique.”

Analysts say the new accord offers the best hope yet for a lasting solution to the conflict.

“All of us have to be optimistic, because if nobody believes in peace, there will be no peace,” said Felipe Donoso, head of mission for the International Committee of the Red Cross in Mozambique.

Nyusi and Momade both hope the deal will score them political points ahead of presidential, parliamentary and provincial elections on Oct. 15.

The poll could make or break the agreement, experts said. It will be the first time Renamo, now the country’s main opposition party, can compete for provincial governorships, satisfying demands for political inclusion and control over areas they dominate.

However, if Renamo does not achieve its election goals of winning governorships and feels cheated by Frelimo, the accord could quickly come undone.

“Then the whole thing will collapse,” said Joseph Hanlon, a visiting professor at the London School of Economics.