4th May, 2023
Local elections in England will be held on Thursday, the first major electoral test for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.
This comes after a year of scandals, strikes, and economic chaos for the ruling Conservatives.
The elections are seen as one of the last big chances to gauge public support before a national election next year, as well as a chance to see if the main opposition Labour Party can convert their run of double-digit poll leads into election victories.
Sunak, who took over last year after Boris Johnson’s scandal-plagued presidency and the chaotic economic policies that brought Liz Truss down, is credited with stabilizing the British economy.
However, his party is still expected to suffer significantly.
On Thursday, voters will decide over 8,000 council seats in 230 local government authorities across England, which are in charge of providing day-to-day public services such as bin collections, schools, and transportation.
The Conservatives are fighting on two fronts, with the main opposition Labour Party, which leads by about 15 points in national polling, attempting to reclaim seats in so-called Red Wall areas in northern and central England, and the Liberal Democrats attempting to gain ground in the south.
The main political parties are attempting to manage expectations as the elections approach.
The Conservative Party chairman predicted a 1,000-seat loss, while Labour leader Keir Starmer claimed the Conservatives should be making gains due to their previous poor performance.
Most of these seats in England were last contested in 2019, when the Conservatives fared poorly, losing over 1,000 seats to smaller parties like the Liberal Democrats and the Greens.
Then-Prime Minister Theresa May announced her resignation later that month.
Anthony Wells, head of European Political and Social Research at YouGov, said that looking at the vote share might be a more useful indicator than which seats change hands.
“Labour are unlikely to get a lead that is as large as national polls, because the Lib Dems and Greens and smaller parties inevitably do better at local elections than they do at national elections,” he said.
“But if (Labour) want to be on course to win the next election, they should be hoping to get a lead in national vote share of 10 points or so.”
The results will not directly affect Sunak’s practical ability to govern because the vote does not cause seats in Parliament to change hands.
This will be the first set of elections in England where voters will be required to show a form of photographic identification to vote.
A survey by YouGov last week found that about a quarter of voters are unaware of this change, meaning that people could be turned away from polling stations.
Reuters/NAN