8th November, 2023
By Richard Elesho
Oftentimes, the drums of politics give sounds of war. They have been deafening in Kogi State, as the people itch close to a gubernatorial poll. So hard are they beaten by state and non -state actors that they threaten the fabrics of the self-styled Confluence State.
The state was carved out of the old Benue and Kwara states by former military President Ibrahim Badamosi Babangida on 27 August 1991. Its estimated population, as of 2016, was about 4.5 million people spread across its 3 senatorial districts, 9 federal constituencies, and 21 local government areas. There are 239 Wards and 2,548 Polling Units in the state.
Kogi people are in the thick of preparations for the election of a new governor to replace Alhaji Yahaya Bello, whose final tenure comes to a close on 27 January 2024. The off-cycle poll will be held concurrently in two other states, Bayelsa and Imo, on 11 November. Separate judicial pronouncements compelled the states to conduct guber polls on days different from the other states. Less than one week to the exercise, it has become the most talked about issue in Kogi state, summarily displacing the economy and insecurity from the medal table.
The three states have a combined figure of 5.4 million registered voters. Out of this, kogi accounts for 1,932,654. This is according to data obtained from the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, the body saddled with the responsibility of conducting elections into public offices in Nigeria.
The electoral body says it will deploy the use of the Bimodal Voters Accreditation Svheme, BVAS, other technology and upload results on the Independent Result View, IREV portal. The platform allows voters and other interested parties to monitor the electoral process and view the results of ongoing elections in real-time.
Voters’ apathy
Despite the relatively high figure of registered voters however, not more than an insignificant fraction may participate in the poll. For one, a sizable number of those who registered did not collect their Permanent Voter’s Card, PVC. Experience has also shown that people don’t turn out en masse for elections in the state. According to Dataphyte, not more than 3 out of every 5 registered voters usually cast their votes in Kogi. In fact, the data was more abysmal in the last presidential election.
In the 2023 general election, voter turnout dropped to 25%, the lowest in the state’s history. Out of the then 1.65 million registered voters, only 476,038 persons voted. This means that only 1 in every 4 registered voters in the state voted in the last presidential election. This implies too that 3 in every 4 registered voters did not vote in the last presidential election.
A combination of low voters education, fear of electoral violence, and insecurity may make fewer people come out to perform their civic responsibility.
Pretenders and contenders
Even though Kogi state has always suffered voters’ apathy, it is paradoxical that the level of political consciousness and participation before elections usually resonate. All 18 political parties are fielding candidates to run in the election. 17 of them are male, while one is female. The only female candidate is Suleiman Taiye Fatima of the Zenith Labour Party, ZLP. Similarly, there are three deputy governorship candidates in the race. They are Kekere Rahamatu, APP; Eleojo Victoria, Boot Party, BP; and Muhammed Deen Habiba, Peoples Democratic Party, PDP.
Out of the standard bearers, those of the All Peoples Party, APP, Onaji Sunday Farank, and New Nigeria Peoples Party, NNPP, Musa Saliu Mubarak, are the youngest. They are both 35 years old. The candidate of the Action Democratic Party, ADP, is the oldest in the race. He is 77 years old. The rest fall within the general age demography of 40 to 64 years.
The large turn out of parties and candidates notwithstanding, not more than six of them are actually in the race, while two or three are front runners. The notable participants are the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC’s Ododo Ahmed Usman; Social Democratic Party, SDP’s Muritala Yakubu Ajaka; and Peoples Democratic Party, PDP’s Dino Melaiye. Those on the second roll are Elder Leke Abejide, African Democratic Congress, ADC; Olayinka Braimoh, Action Alliance and Jibrin Usman Oyebe, Accord, A.
The six parties have been junketing round the state scavenging for support according to the limits of their respective abilities. They have done this through pubilicised and unannounced consultations, a few rallies, town hall meetings, road shows, and house to house campaigns.
A referendum?
Saturday’s election is expected to be a judgement day for the eclipsing APC administration. Governor Bello is statute barred but remains the major promoter of Ododo, his kinsman. A vote for Ododo will be an approval of the policies of the GYB years, and conversely, a vote against him will be its rejection.
Opinions are divided on the 8-year score card of the governor. His assessment will be based on the basic factors of peace and security, infrastructure development, and welfare of civil servants at the state and local government levels. The election will be a simple referendum on the administration in which Ododo played a major role as Auditor General of LGs.
A race on the faultlines
The Kogi guber poll will be fiercely fought on the faultlines of religion and especially ethnicity. The campaigns unofficially ran on those parameters. Kogi has almost equal numbers of adherents of the two modern religions- Islam and Christianity. All the notable candidates had robust multiple sessions with religious bodies. To a large extent, religious sentiments may guide voters’ decision on Saturday.
Like other states, Kogi is made up of three Senatorial Districts. Each of the zones is dominated by an ethnic nationality. The Igala constitute eight of the nine LGAs in Kogi East; Okun controls five of the seven LGAs in Kogi West, and the Ebira own four of the five LGAs, in Kogi Central.
The state enjoys a lopsided history of power equations. Since her creation in 1991, the East has been in power for more than 16 years. The Central for about eight years and still counting. No indigene of the West has ever been elected governor. The debates on power shift, power retention, or power return have been at the centre of the campaigns.
Kogi West people are asking for a power shift. Those from the Central want to measure up with the records of the East. They are, therefore, bent on another eight years before they can let go. Conversely, harping on their numerical advantage and recent unpleasant political subjugation, people of the East have been unapologetic over their wish to reclaim power, unwittingly codenamed Igala Agenda.
The upcoming poll presents an interesting opportunity for each of the tribes to test their strategy. Its unique aspect is the fact that all three ethnic groups have candidates in major political parties. The campaign colouration shaped up to a tribal contest, something like a triangular dog fight among the Ebira, Okun, and Igala stocks.
Except for Kogi West, which has so far been lackadaisical in its pursuit, the front-line candidates are flying two flags. In spite of contradictory endorsements by Kogi West elders and youths, respectively, at best, the Okun seems undecided between Dino, Abejide, and Braimoh, the three people from the area who are in the race.
On the other hand, Ododo, the APC standard bearer, is a solo contestant from Kogi Central. Ajaka of SDP has evolved as the face of Igala Agenda. In fact, no less than six candidates of Igala extraction abandoned their insignificant flags and coalesced to the Ajaka team.
Analysts are persuaded that ethnicity will play a big role in how voters cast the ballot in the election.
Danger signs
Members of opposition parties, notably SDP, PDP, and ADC, have been complaining and accusing the state government of emasculating them through obnoxious tax policies and other tactics that hit below the belt.
One such is a memo to all hotels in the state last week, directing them to reserve all their rooms and facility for the use of the government. Oricha Shuaibu, Director General of Government House Administration in the memo, asked for exclusive use of the hotels from 4th to 12th November. The opposition members have been crying blue murder over the development.
Similarly, the candidate of the PDP has raised alarm over what he described as heinous plans to import thugs from other states. He claimed that foot-soldiers of the plot have invaded the communities and that some opposition leaders have been marked for outright elimination or abduction across the state.
Melaiye said, “Intelligence available to our campaign is to the effect that the APC have sewn fake Police Uniforms (camouflage) which have already been brought into Kogi State and ready to be distributed among APC thugs to parade as police men and unleash terror on innocent Kogites on election day. Further intelligence exposed that the thugs are allegedly being imported from Kwara, Lagos, Ogun, and Oyo States.”
In a related development, the SDP has also raised similar alarm. Faruk Adejoh-Audu, Director of Communication of the party’s campaign council, said the state government is pursuing an agenda to instil fear and voter apathy. He identified Dekina, Idah, and Ofu as Red flag LGs and called for the declaration of a state of emergency in Kogi in the election period.
Kingsley Fanwo, Commissioner for Information and spokesman of the APC Campaign Council, disagreed and dismissed the allegations. He said the government is committed to a free, fair, and credible election. “Usman Ododo is winning this election landslide on the performance of Governor Bello. Defeat is starring the opposition parties in the face. We do not need to rig before we win. The opposition and their nay followers are only looking for excuses.”
* Once beaten: The tribal politics has already taken an enormous toll on peace in the state. The campaigns were characterised by anxiety and violence. There have been several reported cases of breakdown of law and order, especially in the East.
Kogi has an unenviable history of electoral violence. Many people were abducted while others were killed during the last governorship poll in 2019. A police helicopter hovered and rained bullets on innocent people at Polling Units and in their houses. Mrs Salome Abu, then PDP women leader in Ochadamu, was roasted when arsonists set fire on her bungalow.
There are fears that many more may be maimed, kidnapped, or killed as the state goes to the poll. To stem the tide, the law enforcement agencies have approved changes in their top personnel and deployed a sizable number of their operatives to the state. No less than 40,000 policemen, 20,000 military officers, and 10,000 secret police detectives, among others, have been posted to maintain law and order in the days before, during, and after the election.