7th February, 2024
By Nosa Saidu
In a surprising turn of events, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have officially withdrawn from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). This decision, while significant for the Sahel region, poses challenges for the newly formed alliance amidst broader economic and security concerns.
Economic Disruption Looms
The withdrawal of the Sahel states from ECOWAS threatens to disrupt regional trade and economic development. Mali, heavily reliant on ECOWAS for 34.9% of its merchandise imports in 2022, faces potential inflationary pressures with restricted access to the ECOWAS market. Similarly, Burkina Faso’s dependence on Cotonou and Lomé ports for international trade presents logistical challenges should it ultimately exit the bloc. “While ECOWAS would lose around 70 million people, they are the populations whose purchasing power is amongst the lowest in the entire bloc,” says Charlie Robertson, head of macro-strategy at FIM Partners. “Their departure is unlikely to have a significant impact on the bloc or on major economies like Nigeria, Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire.”
The departure from ECOWAS casts shadows over the banking sector in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. While larger regional banks may weather the storm, local subsidiaries anticipate declines in asset quality and profitability. Despite the negligible impact on ECOWAS’s overall financial cohesion, concerns over economic stability persist within the departing nations.
Security Challenges Intensify
Of grave concern is the escalation of regional violence in the Sahel. Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso are pivotal in combating Islamist extremism, with coordinated efforts at risk due to the withdrawal of French and UN troops. The departure from ECOWAS exacerbates security risks, threatening stability not only in the Sahel but also across neighboring nations. Notably, data has shown an increase in violence and attacks in the three countries since the Military Junta took power, which raises questions about their ability to deal with the existing challenges.
Despite forming the AES, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger face daunting challenges. The AES’s departure from ECOWAS may further isolate the alliance, impeding access to vital markets and exacerbating economic woes. Moreover, the AES’s credibility remains uncertain, with the international community closely monitoring its ability to foster regional cooperation and address pressing security concerns.
While the departure of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger poses challenges, ECOWAS remains resilient. With the departure of three of its poorest members, ECOWAS is poised to maintain economic cohesion and explore avenues for deeper integration among remaining states. The impact of the AES’s departure on ECOWAS’s overall gross domestic product is minimal, underscoring the bloc’s stability and adaptability in the face of regional dynamics. Notwithstanding, the move may bring an end to decades of brotherhood that has existed in the regional bloc.
The withdrawal of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger from ECOWAS underscores the complex interplay of economic, security, and political factors shaping West Africa’s landscape. As the Sahel states navigate uncertain terrain, collaboration and strategic planning are essential in mitigating challenges and fostering sustainable development. The broader West African region must remain vigilant, recognizing the interconnectedness of nations and the imperative of collective action in overcoming shared obstacles.