25.7bn gone: Nigeria’s crude theft crisis linked to elites, militants

Over the past 23 years, Nigeria has lost crude oil worth about $25.7 billion (₦39.3 trillion) to theft, worsening poverty, reducing government income, and increasing public debt, which now stands at ₦149.4 trillion.

Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) shows that between 2002 and 2025, about 353 million barrels of crude oil were stolen in the Niger Delta. This is equal to over 56 billion litres or about 1.2 million tanker loads of fuel.

At an average price of $73 per barrel, the value of the stolen crude equals roughly 72% of Nigeria’s 2025 budget.

Apart from these losses, Nigeria spends heavily on securing oil pipelines. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) spent ₦267.98 billion on pipeline security within 16 months, averaging ₦16 billion every month.

Experts say oil theft is an organised crime involving powerful Nigerians and international partners who hire vessels and professionals to tap crude oil without being caught by security forces.

From 1999 to 2001, there was no recorded oil theft. But in 2002, Nigeria lost an average of 11,800 barrels daily, totalling 4.3 million barrels. Theft rose sharply in 2003 to 64,900 barrels per day and even higher in 2004, with daily losses of 69,200 barrels.

These increases were linked to rising militancy and vandalism in the Niger Delta. After the federal government’s amnesty programme for militants, theft reduced. For example, in 2009, average daily theft was down to 8,500 barrels.

However, theft rose again in 2011 to 33,000 barrels daily and doubled in 2012 to 70,700 barrels per day. It continued at high levels, reaching 102,900 barrels daily in 2021, before dropping to 11,900 barrels daily in 2023 and around 11,100 barrels so far in 2025.

Because of frequent theft and pipeline vandalism, many oil companies have stopped using pipelines and now transport crude with barges. For example, Green Energy International recently opened a new terminal in Port Harcourt with a capacity of 350,000 barrels per day. This move is expected to encourage about 40 local oil producers to restart production.

Nembe Exploration and ProductionCompany Limited also switched to barging after pipeline vandalism forced it to stop production for a year. The company’s managing director, Victor Okoronkwo, said barging reduced their crude losses from 90% to just 5%.

Nigeria currently produces about 1.4 million barrels per day, below the government’s target of 2.06 million barrels, putting pressure on national income and foreign reserves.

Experts say the main problem is not finding crude oil underground, but transporting it safely. More evacuation terminals would give oil producers options when pipelines are vandalised.

Nigeria now has about 44 oil rigs, the highest in four years, up from 18 in 2019.

The Petroleum Industry Act has started to attract more investment. In 2024 alone, 120 oil wells were drilled, with investments worth $2.71 billion.

Between 2022 and 2025, a total of $10.05 billion has been invested in developing oil wells, with 246 wells drilled and completed.

However, Nigeria remains one of the most expensive countries to drill oil, with costs above $40 per barrel. Oil theft has worsened this, reducing revenue, damaging investor confidence, and making operations less efficient.

Dr. Diran Fawibe, Chairman of International Energy Services Limited, said Nigeria failed to tackle oil theft when it started, allowing it to grow into a national crisis controlled by powerful people.

He said while alternatives like barging and trucking help companies bypass broken pipelines, they make it hard for the government to monitor exact export volumes, reducing transparency and revenue accuracy.

He also criticised previous government investigations into oil theft, saying their reports were never made public, showing lack of seriousness. Fawibe wants a judicial commission to investigate oil theft and force everyone involved to testify under oath.

Professor Segun Ajibola, former President of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria, called pipeline abandonment an “aberration” caused by insecurity.

He urged the government to improve security, review pipeline surveillance contracts regularly, and punish vandals severely.

Professor Adeola Adenikinju, President of the Nigerian Economic Society, said pipeline transport remains the cheapest way to move crude. Barging and trucking increase costs and discourage investors.

He hopes combining private security with government forces and implementing the Petroleum Industry Act will reduce sabotage.

Energy analyst Henry Adigun added that barging is not ideal but gives companies more certainty compared to pipelines that are often sabotaged.

He said unless Nigeria secures existing pipelines or builds new ones, producers will keep choosing more expensive alternatives to avoid risks, harming the country’s long-term interests.