CBN’s gains tested as naira falls slightly to ₦1,467 per dollar

The Naira began the week with a mild depreciation, trading at ₦1,467.01 per dollar on Tuesday, slightly weaker than the ₦1,460/$1 it closed at on Monday.

According to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) tracked by Nairametrics, the currency had closed at ₦1,458/$1 on Friday its strongest level since 2024following intensified efforts by the CBN to stabilize the foreign exchange market and consolidate recent monetary gains.

Last week, the Naira opened at ₦1,464/$1 and slipped marginally to ₦1,472/$1 by Tuesday. At the parallel market, it traded between ₦1,498 and ₦1,504 per dollar, showing a slight difference from the official market rate.

Meanwhile, Nigeria’s foreign reserves rose to $42.6 billion on Tuesday, up from $42.5 billion recorded on Monday. This steady upward trend, which began in mid-July 2025, reflects improved foreign inflows driven by higher oil export earnings.

Analysts believe this consistent growth in reserves will strengthen the CBN’s ability to manage speculative pressures and maintain stability in the currency market.

In its latest economic outlook, Standard Bank revised its foreign exchange projections downward, noting, “While the risks remain evident, we now again lower our year-end FX forecasts. We see the Naira at ₦1,458.8/$1 by December 2025 and ₦1,473/$1 by December 2026.”

The bank added that sustained reserve growth “should continue to support gross FX reserves, thereby increasing the CBN’s ability to ensure orderly exits whenever foreign investors withdraw from the market.”

Despite the mild depreciation, analysts expect Nigeria’s inflation rate to continue its downward trend in September 2025. The projected moderation is linked to a firmer exchange rate, improved food supply, and stable energy prices.

The Nairametrics Research Team projects that “since stability in the exchange rate and energy markets was maintained, September could mark the sixth consecutive month of easing inflation.”

If confirmed, this would represent a major win for monetary authorities, who have combined fiscal discipline, tighter monetary policy, and FX reforms to restore macroeconomic stability.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased for the fifth consecutive month, dropping to 20.12% in August 2025 from 21.88% in July 2025 indicating a slower rate of price increases.

The NBS is expected to release its Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September on Wednesday.