Nigeria at the Crossroads: Are We a Player or the Board in the New Global Chess Game?

Financial strategist Dr. Dominic Joshua warns against the nation becoming a mere battleground for superpowers, urges adoption of a “Sovereign Deal-Playbook” to secure Nigeria’s future.

The world is dividing again. Not by ideology alone, but by supply chains, digital currencies, and a frantic scramble for the very minerals that power our modern lives. In this quiet, cold war of economic blocs—the expanded BRICS+ alliance on one side, the re-energised G7 on the other—Nigeria finds itself in a familiar, yet perilous, position: desired by all, but strategically vulnerable.

One voice is cutting through the noise with a stark, actionable warning. Dr. Dominic Joshua, the financial consultant and founder of Cultivate Africa, isn’t just analysing the trends; he’s sounding an alarm. “We are not a prize to be won,” he states firmly, “We are a bride with agency. But right now, we’re acting like the dowry.”

Joshua’s metaphor is deliberate. In the high-stakes courtship between global powers vying for Africa’s critical minerals—lithium for batteries, cobalt for electronics, and yes, still, our oil and gas—he sees Nigeria risking a fate worse than alignment: exploitation without transformation.

“Look at the deal patterns,” he says, leaning forward, his analytical style morphing into something more visceral. “China offers infrastructure-for-resources. The West offers loans-with-conditions. Everyone wants our lithium, but they’ll take it raw, process it in their factories, and sell us the finished battery at a 300% markup. That’s not partnership. That’s a pathology.”

His solution is what he terms a “Sovereign Deal-Playbook,” a non-negotiable framework the Nigerian state must adopt before signing any major bilateral agreement.

“First clause,” he enumerates, tapping his finger on the table. “No raw exports of critical minerals.” Any deal must include firm commitments for local refining or processing, even if it starts at a modest scale. It builds domestic capacity and captures more value.

“Second: Tech transfer is not a gift; it’s a transaction. It must be written into the contract, with milestones. If you’re building our rail, our engineers must learn how to build the next one. If you’re installing 5G, our coders must access the core innovation.”

“Third, and most crucial: We must pivot our own narrative. Our real power isn’t just in the ground; it’s in our people and our sun. A market of 220 million aspiring consumers is a geopolitical weapon. Our potential for solar and green hydrogen is an asset cleaner and more future-proof than oil. We must enter every room selling access and potential, not just extraction rights.”

Joshua, whose ventures span agriculture, tech, and strategic advisory, speaks with the weariness of a man who has seen bad deals up close. He warns specifically against “vanity projects” – sprawling infrastructure with no real productivity payoff, destined to become debt traps.

“Debt is seductive. It feels like capital today, but it’s a claim on your sovereignty tomorrow. We must be smarter. Offer equity. Offer joint ventures where we are true partners, not just hosts. Let them take a share of the success, not just a pound of flesh when we fail.”

His vision is of a Nigeria that manoeuvres with agnostic agility. “We can have military training with the US, digital infrastructure with the Chinese, and energy partnerships with the EU—but on our own terms, guided by our Playbook. Our allegiance must be to our own national industrial strategy, not to any foreign capital.”

The question he leaves hanging is one of political will. “The Playbook is simple in theory. It requires a disciplined, unified state to enact it. Do we have the courage to walk away from a bad deal? To tell a superpower ‘no’? Until we do, we remain the board on which they play their game. We must become a player. A savvy, dignified, and demanding one.”

As the world’s fractures deepen, Dr. Joshua’s message is clear: In the great power play of 2026, Nigeria must learn to wear its own crown.

Dr. Dominic Joshua is a financial consultant, economic strategist, and founder of Cultivate Africa. He advises corporations and governments on strategic investment and geopolitical risk.