Updated: IMF raises Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.4%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2026 to 4.4 per cent, up from the 4.2 per cent projected in October 2025.

The revised forecast is contained in the IMF’s January 2026 update of the World Economic Outlook, released on Monday.

The Fund said Nigeria’s improved outlook forms part of a broader assessment of global economic conditions, which it expects to remain relatively stable in the medium term.

According to the IMF, the upward revision reflects gradual economic strengthening across Sub-Saharan Africa rather than an isolated adjustment for Nigeria.

Nigeria’s revised growth projection follows a period of major economic adjustments marked by policy reforms and efforts to stabilise the macroeconomic environment.

In its October 2025 outlook, the IMF had expressed concerns over inflationary pressures, fiscal constraints and structural weaknesses in the Nigerian economy.

However, the Fund noted that policymakers have since continued reforms aimed at strengthening fiscal coordination, restoring macroeconomic balance and improving productivity in key sectors.

The IMF again stressed the importance of structural reforms in driving sustainable growth in emerging and developing economies, including Nigeria.

Across Sub-Saharan Africa, regional growth was revised upward from 4.0 per cent to 4.1 per cent for 2025, and from 4.3 per cent to 4.4 per cent for 2026, signalling a broadly shared recovery trend.

Globally, the Fund projects economic growth of 3.3 per cent in 2026 and 3.2 per cent in 2027, largely in line with the estimated 3.3 per cent growth recorded in 2025.

It said the outlook reflects a balance between headwinds from shifting trade policies and tailwinds from technology-driven investments, including artificial intelligence, alongside accommodative financial conditions.

The IMF also projected that global inflation will continue to ease, with headline inflation expected to decline from 4.1 per cent in 2025 to 3.8 per cent in 2026 and 3.4 per cent in 2027.