2027: Kwankwaso politically trapped – Keyamo

The Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, has said former Kano State governor and NNPP leader, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, is facing one of the most decisive moments of his political career due to what he described as strategic miscalculations ahead of the 2027 general elections.

In a lengthy post on X on Sunday, Keyamo argued that Kwankwaso’s refusal or hesitation to align with a major political party earlier has significantly narrowed his options, leaving him “boxed into one of the tightest corners” of his political life.

According to the minister, Kwankwaso remains determined to become Nigeria’s president but lacks a viable platform to realise that ambition in 2027.

“None of the major political parties will pick him as a candidate in 2027,” Mr Keyamo said, noting that both the APC and PDP are expected to zone their presidential tickets to the South, while the African Democratic Congress (ADC) is firmly under the control of former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar.

He dismissed the chances of the NNPP winning the presidency, describing the party as largely confined to Kano State and weakened by recent defections, including that of the state governor.

“A leader is only as strong as his devoted lieutenants,” Keyamo wrote.

No Northern Alliance

Keyamo also ruled out the possibility of Kwankwaso supporting another northern presidential candidate in 2027, arguing that such a move would effectively end his own ambition.

He said backing a northern president would likely delay Kwankwaso’s chances until 2043 due to Nigeria’s informal power rotation, at which point the former governor would be 86 years old.

“This entirely rules out an Atiku–Kwankwaso cooperation in 2027,” he added.

Eye on 2031

According to Mr Keyamo, Mr Kwankwaso’s most realistic pathway to the presidency now lies in 2031, but warned that the alliances he forges in 2027 will be critical to sustaining his political relevance.

He noted that losing control of Kano in 2027 would significantly weaken Mr Kwankwaso’s influence and reduce his chances of securing a presidential ticket from any major party in the future.

“This is the time he can cash in on his presumed dominance of Kano politics and take a chance,” Mr Keyamo said.

Limited Alliance Options

The minister identified the PDP, APC and Labour Party as the only realistic platforms available to Mr Kwankwaso but said each option comes with serious constraints.

He said returning to the PDP might allow Mr Kwankwaso to rebuild influence in Kano and parts of the North-West but would require shelving his presidential ambition until 2031 due to zoning.

On the APC, Keyamo said the ruling party is no longer desperate for Mr Kwankwaso’s support in Kano, given recent defections that have strengthened its local structure.

“The APC cannot throw its entire structure in Kano under the bus for Kwankwaso,” he said, although he acknowledged that the party’s national spread could make it attractive ahead of 2031.

Keyamo also dismissed the Labour Party option, insisting Mr Kwankwaso would neither accept nor receive support to run as a vice-presidential candidate to Peter Obi.

Keyamo concluded that Mr Kwankwaso stands at a critical political junction, warning that the choices he makes now could either revive or permanently end his presidential ambition.

“Without a handshake with another major party, he will remain a local champion with his NNPP,” he said, adding that even that influence may soon erode amid the party’s challenges in Kano.