MIddle East Tension: Nigeria emerges top beneficiary as global oil market shifts

Nigeria has been identified as the African country most likely to benefit from the ongoing crisis in the Middle East.

Other countries expected to gain include Libya, Angola, Gabon, Mozambique, Namibia, and Tanzania. These nations are now seen as safer and more reliable alternatives to Middle Eastern oil suppliers.

Due to the conflict, buyers in Europe and Asia are turning to Africa for oil. This is because African supplies come with lower insurance costs and more stable delivery routes compared to risky areas like the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.

The crisis has disrupted global energy supply, cutting off about 8 million barrels of oil per day and 20% of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

As a result, oil prices have risen sharply. Brent crude has increased by over 50%, reaching around $110 per barrel. At the same time, the U.S. stock market has lost nearly $4 trillion in value.

Experts say African energy producers may benefit in the long term because they are less affected by the conflict’s location.

Africa’s LNG sector is expected to grow strongly. Export capacity could increase from about 80 million tons per year in 2025 to over 175 million tons by 2040.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s LNG exports are also projected to rise significantly by 2034. This growth will be driven by major projects in countries like Mozambique, Angola, Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, and Cameroon.

For example, TotalEnergies has restarted its $20 billion LNG project in Mozambique after a five-year pause caused by security issues. Production is expected to begin in 2029.

Eni is also developing a large gas field in Mozambique using floating LNG technology. Some production has already started, with more expected by 2028.

ExxonMobil is leading another major $30 billion LNG project in Mozambique, which could begin production around 2030–2031.

Meanwhile, the global energy crisis is helping to revive long-delayed African projects like the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline. This pipeline will transport gas from Nigeria through Niger and Algeria to Europe.

The project aims to deliver 30 billion cubic meters of gas yearly by 2027, helping Europe reduce its dependence on Russian energy.

Overall, Africa is becoming more important in the global energy market, with Nigeria in a strong position to benefit from current global developments.