Five reasons US-Iran talks in Islamabad failed

The high stakes talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad which took 21 hours have ended with no agreement between the warring parties.

The talks were meant to turn the fragile two-week ceasefire into something lasting.

The talks in Pakistan’s capital were the highest-level of direct engagement between Iran and the US since the 1979 Islamic Revolution and the American embassy crisis in Tehran.

Pakistan acted as “mediator”. The stakes were huge. The US-Israeli war on Iran, which began on February 28, has already disrupted global oil supplies and pushed the Middle East to the brink.

While US President Donald Trump had been desperately seeking a way out, an even more desperate Pakistan invited the warring sides to its capital, even as the fragile two-week ceasefire was torn to shreds by the Israeli forces in southern Lebanon.

Experts, before the talks commenced in Islamabad, had pointed out that divisions, mistrust and the ground situation ensured the talks in Islamabad were always on shaky ground.

Here are five key factors that impacted on the Islamabad talks:

1. Rigid stances and deep divides
Neither side was willing to compromise or move from its red lines.

The US demanded that Iran halt uranium enrichment and commit not to seek nuclear weapons in the future. Iran refused. It maintained that its nuclear programme was for peaceful civilian purposes. Iran’s foreign ministry described U.S. demands as “excessive and unreasonable”.

2. Lack of trust and conducive atmosphere
Peace talks need trust and conducive atmosphere to thrive which were lacking in the negotiators between Iran and the U.S. in Islamabad. While the negotiations were going on, U.S. President Donald Trump kept issuing repeated threats to Iran and even said “the whole civilisation will die tonight.” While Iranian officials landed in Pakistan, Trump warned he would renew and intensify US strikes if a peace deal was not reached. The hostility made the negotiation atmosphere to become too tense to achieve peace.

3. Israel’s bombing of Lebanon while negotiations were on
Even as Iran-US talks were underway in Pakistan, Israel continued strikes in Lebanon, an Iran’s ally. Iran wanted the Israeli strikes on Lebanon to stop as a prerequisite for the peace talks. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made it clear the bilateral ceasefire between the US and Iran did not apply to it. Israeli strikes continued on Lebanon.

The Israeli attacks on Lebanon tested the fragile ceasefire as negotiations began. While Iran pushed for wider de-escalation, the US did not offer guarantees. That made compromise harder.

4. Strait of Hormuz became a deal-breaker
The control of the Strait of Hormuz, which has been largely closed since February 28, turned into a major sticking point in the US-Iran talks.

Iran had earlier mined parts of the strait, which choked shipping and oil flows out of the Persian Gulf. The US wanted Hormuz to be immediately reopened. It saw this as non-negotiable, Trump said repeatedly. He said that Iranians would be “living in hell”, if they didn’t open the Strait.

But Iran sees the Strait of Hormuz as a leverage. It wants relief from sanctions imposed on it and security guarantees first.

5. Trust deficit between U.S. and Iran
Trust was the biggest decider in the peace talks in Islamabad. Years of hostility meant both sides doubted each other’s intentions. Even before the talks, Iran’s negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said, “We have goodwill, but we do not trust”.