In Somalia, the drivers of collapse resurface

In a country whose wounds have yet to heal since the collapse of the state in the early 1990s, fears are mounting in Somalia over the return of the very factors that once drove the nation into war and disintegration. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud faces growing accusations of entrenching clan-based rule, expanding the influence of loyalists within state institutions, and attempting to reshape the political system in a way that would grant him a tighter grip on power as his constitutional term nears its end in mid-May.

Somali politicians and observers argue that the gravest threat currently facing the country is not merely political division or electoral disputes, but the resurgence of patronage and the concentration of power within a narrow circle tied to clan affiliations and individuals close to the presidency. Many Somalis view these policies as among the principal causes that led to the collapse of former president Siad Barre’s regime in 1991 and plunged the country into a civil war that endured for decades.

According to the “BTI 2026 Somalia Country Report,” Somali state institutions continue to suffer from “corruption, patronage, and the dominance of clan considerations over decision-making processes.” The report notes that executive authority has become increasingly centralized within the presidency amid weakening oversight mechanisms and the erosion of the independence of constitutional institutions. It further states that “the buying of political loyalties and pressure on parliament” have contributed to deepening the fragility of the political system. The report also indicates that clan-based networks of influence continue to directly shape appointments and the management of public resources.

In recent months, appointments linked to the presidential circle have sparked widespread controversy within Somalia, including the appointment of the president’s daughter, Jehan Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, to an advisory role — a move criticized by opposition figures and activists who described it as emblematic of the expanding influence of the president’s family and close associates within state institutions.

Somali and Arab media reports have also pointed to growing fears of “the reproduction of a system of governance based on clan and family loyalty” in a country whose political balance fundamentally rests on complex tribal sensitivities.

At the same time, the political crisis has intensified as the president’s current term approaches its end, amid sharp disputes over upcoming elections and constitutional amendments that have prompted federal states, including Puntland and Jubaland, to accuse the government of attempting to monopolize power and undermine the federal system.

A report published by the political risk assessment platform “Riskline” stated that Somalia’s political landscape is witnessing “growing polarization” due to disagreements over the future of the electoral system and the powers of the central government. The report added that the opposition fears political amendments could be used to expand presidential authority at the expense of the traditional balance between the center and the federal states.

Somali reports, including those published by Somali Guardian, also spoke of officials and political figures joining the opposition camp as mid-May approaches, amid warnings that the country could slide into a constitutional crisis if no political consensus is reached regarding the next phase.

The Somali Guardian platform reported that government figures have already begun defecting and joining opposition alliances as concerns mount over the continuation of the political crisis.

Observers believe the danger of the current crisis lies in the fact that it revives the very same conditions that once drove Somalia towards collapse, when the monopolization of power and the prioritization of clan and family loyalties over state institutions led to the disintegration of the political system and plunged the country into a cycle of war that lasted more than three decades.

Warnings are growing that the persistence of corruption, the expansion of the influence of close associates, and the weakening of federal balances could once again push Somalia towards a dangerous phase of instability, particularly amid the fragility of the security situation, the continuing threat posed by Al-Shabaab, and the country’s deep political divisions.