Revealed: Who really borrowed the most since 1999

Business Africa has challenged widespread claims that President Bola Tinubu’s administration is responsible for Nigeria’s highest level of borrowing since the country returned to democratic rule in 1999.

According to the report titled “Who Borrowed Most? Nigeria’s Presidential Debt Record 1999–2025,” recent narratives suggesting an unprecedented surge in borrowing under the current administration do not fully align with available debt data.

The research firm argued that much of the apparent increase in Nigeria’s debt stock since 2023 is not solely the result of fresh loans, but also reflects major revaluation effects following foreign exchange policy adjustments introduced under the Tinubu administration.

Debt figures and key comparisons
The report stated that Nigeria’s external debt stood at about $42.5 billion when President Tinubu assumed office in May 2023. By December 2025, this figure had risen to approximately $51.9 billion, representing an estimated increase of $9.4 billion over the period.

In contrast, it noted that external debt rose much more sharply under former President Muhammadu Buhari, increasing from about $10.3 billion in 2015 to roughly $42.9 billion by 2023. This represents an estimated jump of $32.6 billion within eight years.

The report further highlighted that Nigeria’s external debt declined significantly during the administration of former President Olusegun Obasanjo, who reportedly reduced the country’s debt burden by approximately $25.9 billion between 1999 and 2007, largely through debt relief initiatives.
Exchange rate effects and debt revaluation

Think Business Africa explained that comparisons based only on naira-denominated debt figures can be misleading because Nigeria’s external obligations are primarily denominated in foreign currencies, especially US dollars.

Following the unification and reforms of the foreign exchange market in mid-2023, the naira experienced substantial depreciation. This automatically increased the naira value of existing external debt, even without new borrowing.

As a result, the inherited external debt stock of $42.5 billion, previously valued at about ₦19.6 trillion under earlier exchange rates, appeared significantly larger when recalculated under the new exchange rate regime.

The report also pointed out that domestic debt figures were affected by accounting adjustments, particularly the securitisation of approximately ₦23.9 trillion in Ways and Means advances accumulated under previous administrations.

True drivers of rising debt profile
According to the analysis, while Nigeria’s total debt profile has continued to grow, a large portion of the increase reflects valuation changes and restructuring rather than purely new borrowing.

It added that, when exchange rate effects and accounting adjustments are excluded, the level of fresh borrowing under the current administration appears more moderate than headline naira figures suggest.

The report also observed that domestic debt measured in dollar terms reportedly declined by about $6.5 billion between early 2023 and the end of 2025, while total public debt increased only marginally by around $2.7 billion over the same period when adjusted for valuation effects.

Broader fiscal concerns remain
Despite its findings, Think Business Africa stressed that Nigeria’s debt situation still presents serious fiscal challenges. It noted that the most pressing issue is not necessarily the size of the debt alone, but the increasing cost of servicing it.

Rising debt servicing obligations, the report warned, continue to place pressure on government revenue and limit fiscal space for critical sectors such as infrastructure development, healthcare, education, and social welfare programmes.

Context from official data
Meanwhile, data from the Debt Management Office (DMO) indicates that Nigeria’s total public debt rose significantly during the period under review. Public debt stood at about ₦87.38 trillion as of June 30, 2023, shortly after President Tinubu took office.

By December 31, 2025, this figure had increased to approximately ₦159.28 trillion, driven by a combination of new borrowing, exchange rate adjustments, and the restructuring of existing liabilities.

The report concludes that Nigeria’s debt debate requires a more balanced interpretation, emphasizing both dollar-denominated realities and the distortions introduced by currency depreciation and accounting changes.