NRS: Tinubu’s Reforms lift Reserves to $50bn, Tax Revenue to ₦28.3tn

By Kazeem Ugbodaga

Nigeria’s external reserves have climbed from $3.99 billion in May 2023 to $50.11 billion, while annual tax collections have risen from ₦12.3 trillion to ₦28.3 trillion, according to a new Economic Snapshot Report (2023 vs 2026) released by the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS).

The report, which reviewed the country’s economic performance from President Bola Tinubu’s inauguration on May 29, 2023, to mid-2026, said Nigeria has moved from “crisis management into a consolidation phase” following major policy reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidy, unification of the foreign exchange market, implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) and tax reforms.

According to the report, the administration inherited an economy weighed down by four major structural challenges: an unsustainable fuel subsidy, multiple foreign exchange windows, weak oil production caused by theft and underinvestment, and a tax system operating below its revenue potential.

It said these reforms had since produced measurable improvements across several economic indicators.

The report showed that GDP growth increased from 2.74 per cent in 2023 to 3.89 per cent by the first quarter of 2026, while headline inflation, which stood at 22.2 per cent in April 2023 and later peaked at 34.8 per cent in December 2024, declined to 15.9 per cent in 2026.

The NRS also reported that the country’s balance of payments moved from a $3.34 billion deficit at the beginning of the administration to a $2.38 billion surplus in the first quarter of 2026.

It attributed the turnaround to the removal of fuel subsidy, exchange-rate unification and tight monetary policy maintained by the Central Bank of Nigeria.

According to the report, Nigeria’s external reserves rose from $3.99 billion to $50.11 billion, the highest level recorded in 17 years, providing import cover well above international adequacy thresholds.

On public finance, the report stated that although total public debt increased from ₦87.4 trillion in 2023 to ₦159.28 trillion, the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio declined from 38 per cent to 32.3 per cent, marking what it described as the first sustained decline in more than a decade.

The report explained that the increase in the naira value of public debt largely reflected the revaluation of external debt following exchange-rate reforms rather than fresh borrowing.

It also noted that the share of government revenue used for debt servicing dropped from 68 per cent to a projected 53 per cent, while cautioning that reducing debt-service costs further remains an important priority.

The oil sector also recorded significant changes.

According to the report, crude oil and condensate production increased from 1.2–1.3 million barrels per day in May 2023 to 1.9 million barrels per day by May 2026, representing 102 per cent of Nigeria’s OPEC quota.

The report linked the increase to intensified security operations against pipeline vandalism and crude theft, as well as continued implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act, which it said improved investor confidence in the upstream petroleum sector.

The report also highlighted major changes in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum industry.

Domestic refining capacity, it said, expanded from 30,000 barrels per day in 2023 to about 700,000 barrels per day by mid-2026.

It added that about 90 per cent of Nigeria’s petrol demand is now supplied through local refining, diesel imports have dropped to zero, and Nigeria recorded its first-ever net petrol export in March 2026.

According to the report, these developments were driven largely by the commercial operations of the Dangote Refinery, the NNPC-Dangote crude-for-naira arrangement and regulatory support from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).

The report further stated that Nigeria’s trade balance improved from a marginal surplus of ₦44.7 billion in 2023 to a ₦7.55 trillion surplus in the first quarter of 2026.

It noted that while crude oil remains the country’s dominant export, exports of refined petroleum products increased by 51 per cent year-on-year to ₦6.78 trillion during the period under review.

The report also highlighted improvements in foreign investment and the capital market, attributing them to increased investor confidence following macroeconomic reforms.

According to the NRS, capital importation rose sharply from $1.03 billion in the third quarter of 2023 to $10.37 billion in the first quarter of 2026, with portfolio investment accounting for the largest share of inflows. The report noted that while foreign direct investment remained below four per cent of total capital inflows, Nigeria’s improved foreign exchange liquidity and tighter monetary policy helped attract increased foreign capital.

On the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), the report said the All-Share Index climbed from 55,738 points in May 2023 to 242,278 points by mid-2026, while market capitalisation expanded from ₦30.36 trillion to ₦155 trillion.

The report attributed the rally to improved macroeconomic stability, foreign exchange reforms, the Central Bank’s bank recapitalisation programme between 2024 and 2026 and continued growth in pension fund assets, which now exceed ₦17 trillion. It described the sustained growth as a reflection of renewed investor confidence in Nigeria’s economic reforms.

On revenue mobilisation, the report said tax collections recorded significant growth during the review period.

It stated that total collections increased from ₦12.3 trillion in 2023 to ₦21 trillion in 2024 and ₦28.3 trillion in 2025, while collections for the first half of 2026 stood at ₦21.6 trillion, representing a 49 per cent year-on-year increase.

According to the report, the non-oil share of revenue collections now accounts for 76 per cent of total collections, while Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio improved from 10.3 per cent to 13 per cent.

The NRS attributed the gains to the rollout of the national e-invoicing system for large taxpayers, the implementation of four major tax reform laws that took effect on January 1, 2026, and the transformation of the Federal Inland Revenue Service into the Nigeria Revenue Service, which consolidated tax and non-tax revenue collection under one institution.