Can Nigeria Still Qualify for the 2026 World Cup?

We are now less than a year away from the 2026 World Cup taking place in the US, Canada, and Mexico. The expanded FIFA Club World Cup has just kicked off as a kind of curtain-raiser for the main event next year. Qualification campaigns for the international tournament are still heating up across the world, with only just over a quarter of the finals berths having already been booked.

African qualifying still has another four rounds of match days to go and no nation has booked its place as yet. The likes of Egypt, Algeria, Morocco, and Ivory Coast are all looking good to make the finals, as they all command impressive leads in their respective groups. But there is one African superpower that is making very hard work of the campaign.

Most of the top betting sites at MyTopSportsbooks do not seem to be too confident of the Super Eagles joining the party. Nigeria has struggled throughout this qualifying campaign and has disappointed fans who are still getting over missing out on the 2022 World Cup finals in Qatar. Surely the Super Eagles won’t fail again?

Recent Results

There has been a lot of upheaval in the Nigerian national set-up since the last failed World Cup qualifying campaign, with five different head coaches attempting to turn things around. There were a lot of misgivings surrounding the appointment of former Mali international Éric Chelle earlier this year – but he seems to have had an impact on performances.

Chelle took over in January and the Super Eagles have not lost a game since. The World Cup qualifying games in March were not entirely convincing but Nigeria won the Unity Cup recently played in London and has now drawn against Russia as well. Beating Ghana and Jamaica and drawing with the European outcasts may not have brought any more points to the Super Eagles but the team should now be more confident going into the fixtures later in the year.

FIFA Rankings

Speaking of confidence boosts, Nigeria has now climbed back into the top five when it comes to FIFA’s African rankings. The team had dropped after poor results in the opening qualifying games had thrown away any positivity coming out of the squad after a somewhat surprising AFCON.

Morocco, Senegal, Egypt, and Algeria are the only African teams ranked higher by football’s governing body and that has to be considered an achievement for Nigeria at the current time. With a total of ten African nations potentially appearing at World Cup 2026, the rankings suggest that Nigeria should be in the mix.

Upcoming Fixtures

There are now just four games left for Nigeria to book its place at the World Cup and the next two will be crucially important. It is fair to say that the Super Eagles really need to be getting something – if not a win – from every single game but the two in September against Rwanda and South Africa are pivotal.

With South Africa now not looking like it will be docked points, Nigeria must be aiming for at least four points from those two games. Beating Rwanda at home in the first game would keep the team in with a shout for second place and a good performance in South Africa could then heat things up for the final two fixtures.

An away game in Lesotho comes next in October before what could be a winner-takes-all match against Benin in Uyo. South Africa will probably win the group, which will leave Nigeria battling it out for a runner-up spot that will earn a place in the second round and the possibility of an inter-confederation playoff that might see the team qualify for the 2026 finals.

Now or Never

Those recent results have put a positive spin on the performances of the Super Eagles and Éric Chelle needs to harness that feeling when the players get together in October for those games against Rwanda and South Africa. If things go wrong then, any chance of qualification will have disappeared.

Nigeria is regarded around the world as one of the heavy hitters of African football but missing out on two consecutive World Cup finals will severely affect its reputation. Since the Super Eagles qualified for their first finals in 1994 (also in the US), they have only failed on two occasions, even making it to the round of 16 on three occasions. There is no overstating the importance of the Rwanda game, in particular.

Figure 2 Super Eagles fans would not want to miss out on another finals – Source: Pexels

World Cup 2026

As bad as it would be for Nigeria not to qualify for World Cup 2026, the fact that the tournament is the largest ever suggests that the Super Eagles have fallen away from the higher ranks of world football. Africa has historically received an unfairly low number of berths for the finals but if this team cannot be one of the best ten, it really would say something about those in charge of the game in Nigeria.

This could be the last chance for the likes of Victor Osimhen to play at a World Cup finals – especially with the uncertainty over his own club career – and it is vital that Nigeria qualify. The entire nation will be watching that game against Rwanda in September and it is not alarmist to suggest that if the Super Eagles fail, the game in this country will never be the same.