2026 WCQ: Permutations, calculations in Super Eagles’ group as FIFA probes South Africa

Femi Fabunmi

The road to the 2026 FIFA World Cup has taken a dramatic turn in Group C, where FIFA has opened an investigation into the eligibility case of South African midfielder Teboho Mokoena.

The development could have far-reaching consequences for Bafana Bafana, as a possible deduction of three points and three goals may drastically reshape the group standings and the qualification race.

Should the sanctions be enforced, South Africa would drop to 14 points level with Benin while Nigeria and Rwanda would remain close behind on 11 points each.

Lesotho sits at 9 points, with Zimbabwe trailing the pack on 4 points. With only two matches left to play, the battle for World Cup tickets has reached boiling point.

If the penalties stand, South Africa would face the daunting task of winning both of their remaining fixtures against Rwanda and Zimbabwe to guarantee qualification.

Benin, on the other hand, must overcome Nigeria and Lesotho, but their hopes depend on Bafana Bafana dropping points.

Nigeria also has a pathway: victories against Benin and Lesotho could propel the Super Eagles back into contention, provided South Africa falters.

The scenario has created unusual dynamics within the group. Ironically, South Africa’s chances of topping the group would be boosted if they defeat Rwanda a result that would simultaneously improve Nigeria’s chances.

Meanwhile, Nigeria’s success against Benin could ensure that Bafana Bafana remain group leaders, leaving the Super Eagles, Benin, and Rwanda to fight for the second qualifying slot.

Group C has now emerged as one of the most unpredictable and tightly contested pools in the African qualifiers.

South Africa remains in pole position, but their hold on first place is threatened by FIFA’s investigation and the fine margins of the remaining fixtures.

Benin, Nigeria, and Rwanda all stand ready to pounce should Bafana Bafana stumble.

With so much at stake, the closing rounds promise to deliver drama, intrigue, and potentially historic upsets on the road to the 2026 World Cup.