Baidoa on a powder keg: Security chaos threatens what remains of stability in Somalia

During the month of November 2025, the city of Baidoa, capital of Bay State in southwestern Somalia, witnessed violent clashes that left numerous casualties.

Somali reports indicate that the fighting erupted between an armed group loyal to the President of the South West State administration, Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed (Laftagareen), and an opposition military officer named Abdirahman Nisho. The confrontations resulted in significant human and material losses, amid widespread chaos and panic among residents.

Clashes began on the fifth of the month in the Onokda neighborhood of Baidoa before spreading to other districts, escalating in intensity with heavy use of machine guns, as gunfire echoed across most parts of the city.

According to Shabelle News Agency, forces loyal to Laftagareen launched an assault on a residence where officer Abdirahman Nisho—one of the government officers aligned with the opposition—was staying. The fighting intensified after military reinforcements from both sides arrived, widening the scope of combat within the city.

The agency reported that the President of South West State had ordered Nisho’s arrest, but the operation encountered fierce resistance. In remarks to the media, the targeted officer accused Laftagareen of “endangering his life and the lives of civilians,” directing sharp accusations against him.

Some sources stated that groups loyal to Laftagareen had attempted to seize public lands in Baidoa before facing resistance from Nisho’s forces. Other accounts suggested that the conflict has political underpinnings, amid accusations that Nisho was organizing forces in support of Parliament Speaker Adan Madobe and other politicians opposed to Laftagareen.

Sources confirmed fatalities and injuries on both sides, in addition to civilian casualties among those trapped in combat zones. A large wave of displacement has begun among city residents, while images circulated on social media show extensive destruction of civilian homes, in a scene portending a grave deterioration of humanitarian and security conditions in Baidoa.

Widespread Security Collapse

Most regions of Somalia are experiencing a state of security breakdown due to active local armed groups, in addition to terrorist organizations that periodically achieve battlefield advances.

Somalia remains home to Al-Shabaab (“Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen”), affiliated with Al-Qaeda, as well as ISIS-Somalia, known as the “Somalia Province” affiliated with ISIS.

Reports indicate that at the beginning of 2025, amid disputes between certain clan leaders and the administration of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, and the retreat from cooperation with them—coupled with the gradual withdrawal of ATMIS in preparation for handing over responsibilities to the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM)—Al-Shabaab regained momentum and intensified its attacks. The group targeted government officials, including President Sheikh Mohamud himself, state institutions, Somali forces and allied troops, as well as civilians.

Somalia witnessed numerous security incidents last year, most notably the targeting of President Sheikh Mohamud’s convoy by a landmine explosion as it passed through the El-Gabta junction near the presidential palace in the Hamar Jajab district of central Mogadishu. The blast, claimed by Al-Shabaab, killed at least eight civilians and wounded others, while the president and his entourage survived.

According to an assessment prepared by researcher Said Nada, between 5 and 12 February 2025, ISIS-Somalia militants resumed multiple attacks on security force bases in the Toga Jaseel area of the Cal Miskaad mountains in Bari region, Puntland, resulting in the deaths of a large number of government forces.

Thus, according to the researcher, terrorist organizations have regained activity with notable intensity in recent months in Somalia, placing an additional heavy burden on the administration of President Sheikh Mohamud.

Other Challenges

Amid the deterioration of the security situation, Somalia—located in the Horn of Africa—continues to face one of its greatest challenges: corruption.

Somalia ranked second among the world’s most corrupt countries, scoring only 9 out of 100 in Transparency International’s 2025 report, despite having announced in 2021 its formal accession to United Nations anti-corruption conventions and the establishment of an independent anti-corruption commission.

In this context, prominent opposition figure and member of parliament Abdirahman Abdishakur launched a sharp attack on President Hassan Sheikh and his Prime Minister, accusing them of engaging in the “systematic theft” of Somali public funds and of appropriating public lands in Mogadishu for personal and political interests.

In a statement published on social media, Abdishakur declared: “Hassan Sheikh’s rule has become a family enterprise, in which consciences are sold and public funds are treated as private property, distributed among political allies and family members, while the poor endure suffering and oppression… This is not leadership; it is plunder and looting.”

He further accused the government of legitimizing favoritism and burying the principle of accountability, thereby losing public trust and plunging citizens into frustration and despair, asserting that such an approach “fuels public anger” and consolidates influence in the hands of a small loyalist circle.

Nepotism and Repercussions

Alongside corruption, Somalia faces further serious challenges, notably the spread of nepotism within decision-making centers, casting doubt on the transparency and credibility of appointments.

Sudanese activist Ali Ahmed Mohamed Al-Maqdashi stated: “This administration has confirmed that the current crisis is not merely an electoral one, but a crisis of a political and administrative system based on personal loyalties and favoritism rather than law and competence. Unless governance is rebuilt on transparent, independent, and just foundations, Somalia will remain trapped in the same cycle of failure, regardless of changing governments and faces.”

He added that “the exposure of this level of nepotism highlights the scale of unfair competition within parliament and across state institutions—from their lowest administrative ranks to the highest executive levels—exacerbating political tension and weakening trust between citizens and governing institutions, while negatively affecting Somalia’s standing in international forums.”

The appearance of the president’s daughter, Jihan, alongside her father at official meetings raised questions about the capacity in which she attends such engagements, including meetings held in New York. Some claim she serves as an adviser to the president on international relations, amid references to broad appointments of individuals from the president’s inner circle to senior positions.

Meanwhile, observers assert that the Somali president does not enjoy full freedom in decision-making, suggesting that an external agenda directs him in accordance with its own interests.

Olivier Duzon wrote in a report published on the website “Le Diplomate” that “Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is well aware that he is under scrutiny. He is not merely the leader of a fragile state still scarred by decades of civil war and terrorism; he is, despite himself, the guardian of a coveted geopolitical position—the Horn of Africa, that rocky, sandy headland overlooking one of the world’s most vital maritime routes,” emphasizing that “the Somali president knows full well that his country may be nothing more than a card in the hands of major powers.