China’s zero-tariff policy on African countries: What implications for global trade?

By Kayode Adebiyi, News Agency of Nigeria (NAN)

In a significant economic move, China announced the extension of zero-tariff treatment to African exports, introducing one of the most significant developments in international trade relations in recent years.

The policy began in 2024 with least-developed African economies and has now been expanded to 53 African nations with diplomatic ties to Beijing, excluding Eswatini.

The policy allows many African goods to enter the Chinese market without import duties.

The Chinese Government says the initiative is aimed at strengthening China-Africa economic cooperation, boosting African exports, and promoting trade partnerships.

Expectedly, the policy has generated strong reactions from economists, policymakers, and global trade experts.

Supporters argue that it offers Africa greater access to the world’s second-largest economy and reduces dependence on Western markets.

Critics, however, warn that the arrangement could deepen Africa’s reliance on China and reinforce unequal trade patterns dominated by raw material exports.

A trade analyst, Paul Frimpong of the Africa-China Center for Policy and Advisory, said that China’s initiative was “a defining moment for Africa” and reflected support for globalisation and free trade.

Yet, other analysts caution that the long-term impact depends on whether African countries can diversify their exports and strengthen local industries.

Supporters say one major advantage of the zero-tariff policy is the expansion of market access for African products.

They point that African exporters of agricultural goods, minerals, textiles, and manufactured products can now enter the Chinese market more competitively because tariffs that previously increased costs have been removed.

This, they say, gives African producers an opportunity to increase sales and attract investment.

It is important to note that China’s consumer market of over 1.4 billion people represents enormous potential for African economies.

Experts believe sectors such as agriculture (coffee, cocoa, tea, cashew nuts) and processed foods could experience growth as Chinese demand increases.

Ghanaian President John Mahama has already described the policy as a “unique opportunity” for Africa to strengthen exports and participate more effectively in global supply chains.

Some analysts believe that another important benefit of the policy is the possibility of industrial development in Africa.

China-African trade analysts, such as Matthew Agboola, believe that tariff-free access could encourage African countries to process raw materials locally before exporting them to China.

“Instead of exporting unprocessed cocoa beans or raw minerals, African industries may begin to produce finished or semi-finished goods, thereby creating jobs and increasing national revenue.

“The policy may also strengthen the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which seeks to promote intra-African trade and industrialisation.

“By gaining easier access to China’s market, African economies could improve manufacturing standards and enhance competitiveness in global commerce,” he said.

Some economists also argue that China’s approach offers African nations an alternative to traditional Western trade systems that often include stricter conditions and barriers.

They say that the policy arrives during a period of increasing global protectionism.

“Trade tensions between major economies, especially between the U.S. and China, have disrupted international markets.

“Therefore, Beijing’s tariff-free offer to African nations is seen as an attempt to reinforce multilateral trade and deepen cooperation with developing countries,” Mr Richard Okpa, a trade analyst, said.

Reuters also reported that China and African leaders jointly urged nations to resolve trade disputes through dialogue rather than protectionism, which has become the new order in international trade.

Another advantage identified by analysts is the improvement of diplomatic and economic relations between China and African states.

Indeed, over the past two decades, China has become Africa’s largest trading partner, financing railways, roads, ports, and energy projects across the continent.

Supporters say the zero-tariff policy strengthens these ties and could lead to further investments in infrastructure and technology transfer.

Reports suggest that trade between China and Africa reached record levels in recent years, surpassing 340 billion dollars in 2025.

In spite of these benefits, the policy also has several criticisms, and one major concern pessimists point out is the imbalance in China-Africa trade relations.

China-African trade receipts show that African countries largely export raw materials such as oil, copper, cobalt, and agricultural products, while China exports manufactured goods and machinery to Africa.

Critics argue that removing tariffs may not fundamentally change this imbalance.

The Brookings Institution scholar, Yun Sun, noted that, “The story is not as straightforward as simply increasing African exports.”

She further said African countries still lacked the industrial capacity, infrastructure, and manufacturing strength needed to compete effectively in the Chinese market.

“As a result, only a limited number of African products may truly benefit from tariff-free access,” she said.

Another criticism is that the policy may deepen Africa’s economic dependence on China.

Some observers argue that China’s growing influence in Africa is driven more by strategic interests than by development goals.

They say China depends heavily on African minerals and energy resources to support its industries, especially in sectors such as electronics, electric vehicles, and renewable energy technologies.

Discussions on international forums and public debates also reflect these concerns.

Some analysts argue that China’s investments and trade policies mainly support resource extraction rather than long-term industrial growth in Africa.

Mr Oyekanmi Audu, an Abuja-based entrepreneur who imports from China, fears that African economies could become overly reliant on Chinese markets, making them vulnerable to changes in Chinese economic policies or demand.

There are also concerns about competition for local African industries, as Chinese manufactured goods are often cheaper due to large-scale production and advanced industrial capacity.

Critics warm that African manufacturers may struggle to compete with imports from China; leading to factory closures and job losses in some sectors.

“If African countries fail to build strong domestic industries, the trade relationship could remain unequal.

“Also, the practical effects of the policy may be limited because many African exports were already receiving preferential treatment under earlier agreements; it’s not new,” Audu said.

French economist Thierry Pairault agreed with Audu, saying that a large percentage of African exports to China already enjoyed low or zero customs duties before the expanded policy was announced.

Other global trade experts also point out the geopolitical implications of the policy, noting that China’s growing economic partnerships in Africa are part of a broader competition for influence between major global powers.

They say, as western countries adopt more protectionist measures, China is positioning itself as a defender of free trade and cooperation with the Global South.

Analysts believe this strategy has and will continue to increase China’s political influence across Africa and reshape global trade alliances in the coming decades.

Neutrals, however, believe that China’s zero-tariff policy for African countries presents both opportunities and challenges.

On the positive side, it opens access to a massive consumer market, encourages exports, strengthens diplomatic relations, and may promote industrial development.

“The policy also offers African countries an alternative path in an increasingly divided global trade environment,” Okpa said.

On the other hand, the initiative raises concerns about dependency, trade imbalances, and limited industrial transformation.

“Without strong domestic policies, infrastructure improvements, and industrial investment, many African countries may continue to export raw materials while importing finished goods from China,” Audi warned.

If properly managed, analysts say the policy could contribute to economic growth and diversification; if not, it may simply reinforce existing inequalities in global trade. (NANFeatures)