Low generation, high demand strain Nigeria’s power grid in January

Nigeria’s electricity grid continued to operate far below its installed capacity in January 2026, with generation constraints and system instability persisting throughout the month, according to the latest Operational Performance Factsheet released by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC).

The report shows that although the country has a total installed generation capacity of 13,625 megawatts (MW), grid-connected power plants were only able to make an average of 4,901MW available for dispatch during the period. This resulted in a Plant Availability Factor (PAF) of just 36 per cent.

In its assessment, NERC noted that the figures highlight ongoing challenges within the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI), particularly in the areas of generation reliability and reserve margins.

“The grid-connected plants recorded a Plant Availability Factor (PAF) of 36%. At any time during the month, an average of 4,901 MW was available for dispatch into the grid,” the commission stated.

Despite the low availability of generation capacity, the report indicated strong utilisation of the power that was available. The Average Load Factor for January stood at 90 per cent, meaning that approximately 4,421 megawatt-hours per hour (MWh/h) of available electricity was dispatched and consumed across the national grid. NERC said this points to sustained demand and limited operational flexibility within the system.

The commission also raised concerns about grid stability during the period, noting that system frequency levels repeatedly fell outside acceptable operational limits.

“The average lower grid frequency (49.03Hz) and average upper grid frequency (50.66Hz) during the month exceeded the prescribed limits of 49.75Hz to 50.25Hz,” NERC said.

According to the regulator, Ihovbor Power Plant (Unit 2), Kainji Power Plant (Unit 1) and Jebba Power Plant (Unit 1) emerged as the best-performing generation units in January, based on their availability and efficient utilisation.

NERC said the operational data provides critical insight into the condition of the power sector and is intended to support evidence-based decisions aimed at improving electricity generation, system reliability and long-term sustainability.

The commission urged industry stakeholders and electricity consumers to remain informed about developments within the sector, stressing that performance indicators such as availability, load factor and grid stability are central to shaping the future of Nigeria’s power supply.